Chad P. Bown | Thinklab

Wine, cheese … and planes: Experts say Trump opens a dangerous new front in E.U. tariff fight

NBC News 15h 1 tweets

Long lead times and a lack of excess production capacity mean that it isn’t feasible for airlines to simply switch suppliers.

3

Chad P. Bown Eight months from now, in all likelihood, the EU will be authorized to retaliate against the United States. Given that the US has now begun to hit Airbus airplanes with its WTO-authorized retaliation, the Europeans may simply do the same thing to Boeing. 15h

3

Subscribe to read

Financial Times 56h 2 tweets

1

Chad P. Bown Scotland's distilleries have taken the costly route of flying their whisky across the Atlantic in a rush to get into the US before Trump’s 25% tariffs - in retaliation to the Airbus subsidy ruling - take effect on Friday. By @MureDickie & Alistair Gray 52h

3

US-China Trade War Tariffs: An Up-to-Date Chart

PIIE 4d 1 tweets

This post, originally published on September 20, 2019, will be updated as China and the United States change their tariffs.

2

Chad P. Bown 1/ Tariff Facts [UPDATED] US average tariffs on Chinese imports are now 21.0%, up from 3.1% before Trump's Trade War. Despite Trump's "mini-deal," US tariffs on China remain slated to double -- from June levels of 12.0% -- to 23.8% by 15 December 2019. 4d

3

The Cost of Another US-China No-Deal Deal

PIIE 4d 2 tweets

The US-China trade deal announced by President Donald Trump on October 11 was promoted as a "substantial phase 1" of a future agreement to address broader issues.

1

Chad P. Bown As easily as Lucy pulls the football away before Charlie Brown can kick it, the US-China trade truce may evaporate into renewed recriminations, leaving US companies facing even more policy-induced risks about their business environment. By @MELovely_Max 4d

4

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg.com 6d 2 tweets

2

Chad P. Bown Trump and China have emerged from last week’s talks with different takes. MOFCOM merely said that “the two sides have made substantial progress” and “agreed to work together in the direction of a final agreement.” Xinhua didn’t mention a deal either. 6d

2

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg.com 6d 1 tweets

1

Chad P. Bown Today, WTO Members approved this month’s $7.5 bn US retaliatory arbitration award -- the largest in the trade organization’s history -- at a special meeting of the dispute settlement body at headquarters in Geneva. By @BBaschuk 6d

8

Subscribe to read

Financial Times 8d 4 tweets

2

Chad P. Bown In Beijing’s view, Trump has embarrassed Liu He on at least 5 separate occasions by discarding understandings or by announcing China tariff increases or sanctions on the eve of one of his many visits to Washington. By @TMitchPK 7d

3

A mini-truce between America and China has investors feeling hopeful

The Economist 8d 2 tweets

But there remain plenty of reasons for pessimism

1

Chad P. Bown For now the atmosphere among the trade negotiators has clearly improved. But truces have emerged before, only to collapse. Ominously the two sides offered neither a joint statement nor a formal text setting out the deal. By ⁦@SoumayaKeynes⁩ 7d

6

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg.com 8d 3 tweets

2

Chad P. Bown REPORTS: deal under discussion — subject to Trump’s approval — to suspend Oct 15 tariff increase. Deal is not expected to address subsidies, IP theft, or forced technology transfer — ie, none of the systemic issues behind the Trade War. By @Jendeben 8d

8

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg.com 12d 3 tweets

2

Chad P. Bown Trump admin blacklists 8 Chinese tech companies, implicating them in human rights violations against Muslim minorities in China’s Xinjiang province. By @SDonnan & @Jendeben (NB: Liu He scheduled to come to Washington for trade talks on Oct 10-11) 12d

3

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg.com 13d 1 tweets

2

Chad P. Bown “Liu He... told visiting dignitaries he would bring an offer to Washington that won’t include commitments on reforming Chinese industrial policy or the government subsidies” By @SDonnan & @Jendeben 13d

2

WTO trade disputes, big and small

Voxeu.org 16d 1 tweets

WTO dispute settlement is well-known for its high-profile cases – e.g., US-EU clashes over bananas, hormone-treated beef, genetically modified organisms, subsidies to Boeing and Airbus, etc. – some

1

Chad P. Bown Just how ABNORMALLY LARGE - trade at stake - is the WTO dispute over Airbus subsidies? With Kara Reynolds, I estimated 14% of the WTO dispute caseload involved trade in disputed products of LESS THAN $1 million per year. Ie, this dispute is NOT typical 16d

3

Subscribe to read

Financial Times 17d 2 tweets

1

Chad P. Bown If USTR can persuade Mr Trump that it’s more macho to defend American industries making big shiny metal things (aircraft) than smaller shiny metal things (cars), the president might hold off on the Section 232s. By @AlanBeattie, The Optimist 17d

3

Subscribe to read

Financial Times 18d 2 tweets

1

Chad P. Bown Rather than bet wrong on the policies of someone like President Trump, some companies are putting off investment decisions. Others are being forced to reckon with the consequences of higher costs, due to the tariffs of his trade war. By @ChrisGiles_ 18d

64

Economics Needs More Black Women

Nytimes.com 19d 36 tweets

We are underrepresented in the profession, which is bad for everyone.

1

Chad P. Bown Economics is neither a welcoming nor a supportive profession for women. But if economics is hostile to women, it is especially antagonistic to black women. By @DrLisaDCook & @itsafronomics 18d

6

The post-referendum rise in import costs has hurt UK workers

Voxeu.org 19d 8 tweets

Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship

1

Chad P. Bown UK workers have not fared well since the referendum. Immediately after the June 2016 Brexit vote, the value of the sterling fell massively. Rising import costs then hurt training, pay, and reinforced ongoing real-wage stagnation. By @SwatDhingraLSE et al 19d

7

Reinventing the Wheel: Phase One of the US-Japan Trade Pact

PIIE 22d 7 tweets

Hailed by President Donald Trump as a major breakthrough, the US-Japan trade deal announced on September 25, 2019, actually does little more than partly restoring the benefits that Trump recklessly threw away when he pulled the United States out of...

1

Chad P. Bown The US-Japan pact is limited. Both sides claim they intend to return to the negotiating table in spring 2020 for a second phase of talks on a more extensive agenda. We'll see if that happens. By Jeff Schott 19d

3

How to Ward Off the Next Recession | by Jean Pisani-Ferry

Jean Pisani-Ferry - Project Syndicate 19d 1 tweets

A decade after the Great Recession, Europe’s economy is still convalescing, and another period of prolonged hardship would cause serious, potentially dangerous economic and political damage. With monetary and fiscal policy unlikely to provide enough...

2

Chad P. Bown Today, a combination of (1) cracks in the global trading system and (2) an unprecedented shortage of policy ammunition are adding to the worries about recession. By @PisaniFerry 19d

4

104: How to Hit Currency Manipulators and Fight the Strong Dollar

Trade Talks - Trade Talks 20d 3 tweets

Explore past US efforts to counter countries with undervalued currencies, as well as two controversial proposals to do so today.

1

Chad P. Bown The Trump administration is currently proposing tariffs be used to attack countries that deliberately undervalue their currencies. Here are the problems with that. 19d

11

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Bloomberg.com 22d 7 tweets

1

Chad P. Bown NEWS: Trump administration discussing ways to limit US investors’ portfolio flows into China in a move that would have repercussions for billions of dollars in investment pegged to major stock indexes By @Jendeben & @SDonnan 22d