Long lead times and a lack of excess production capacity mean that it isn’t feasible for airlines to simply switch suppliers.
Chad P. BownEight months from now, in all likelihood, the EU will be authorized to retaliate against the United States.
Given that the US has now begun to hit Airbus airplanes with its WTO-authorized retaliation, the Europeans may simply do the same thing to Boeing.
Chad P. BownScotland's distilleries have taken the costly route of flying their whisky across the Atlantic in a rush to get into the US before Trump’s 25% tariffs - in retaliation to the Airbus subsidy ruling - take effect on Friday.
By @MureDickie & Alistair Gray
This post, originally published on September 20, 2019, will be updated as China and the United States change their tariffs.
Chad P. Bown1/ Tariff Facts [UPDATED]
US average tariffs on Chinese imports are now 21.0%, up from 3.1% before Trump's Trade War.
Despite Trump's "mini-deal," US tariffs on China remain slated to double -- from June levels of 12.0% -- to 23.8% by 15 December 2019.
The US-China trade deal announced by President Donald Trump on October 11 was promoted as a "substantial phase 1" of a future agreement to address broader issues.
Chad P. BownAs easily as Lucy pulls the football away before Charlie Brown can kick it, the US-China trade truce may evaporate into renewed recriminations, leaving US companies facing even more policy-induced risks about their business environment.
Chad P. BownTrump and China have emerged from last week’s talks with different takes.
MOFCOM merely said that “the two sides have made substantial progress” and “agreed to work together in the direction of a final agreement.”
Xinhua didn’t mention a deal either.
Chad P. BownToday, WTO Members approved this month’s $7.5 bn US retaliatory arbitration award -- the largest in the trade organization’s history -- at a special meeting of the dispute settlement body at headquarters in Geneva.
Chad P. BownIn Beijing’s view, Trump has embarrassed Liu He on at least 5 separate occasions by discarding understandings or by announcing China tariff increases or sanctions on the eve of one of his many visits to Washington.
Chad P. BownFor now the atmosphere among the trade negotiators has clearly improved.
But truces have emerged before, only to collapse.
Ominously the two sides offered neither a joint statement nor a formal text setting out the deal.
Chad P. BownREPORTS: deal under discussion — subject to Trump’s approval — to suspend Oct 15 tariff increase.
Deal is not expected to address subsidies, IP theft, or forced technology transfer — ie, none of the systemic issues behind the Trade War.
Chad P. BownTrump admin blacklists 8 Chinese tech companies, implicating them in human rights violations against Muslim minorities in China’s Xinjiang province.
By @SDonnan & @Jendeben
(NB: Liu He scheduled to come to Washington for trade talks on Oct 10-11)
Chad P. Bown“Liu He... told visiting dignitaries he would bring an offer to Washington that won’t include commitments on reforming Chinese industrial policy or the government subsidies”
By @SDonnan & @Jendeben
WTO dispute settlement is well-known for its high-profile cases – e.g., US-EU clashes over bananas, hormone-treated beef, genetically modified organisms, subsidies to Boeing and Airbus, etc. – some
Chad P. BownJust how ABNORMALLY LARGE - trade at stake - is the WTO dispute over Airbus subsidies?
With Kara Reynolds, I estimated 14% of the WTO dispute caseload involved trade in disputed products of LESS THAN $1 million per year.
Ie, this dispute is NOT typical
Chad P. BownIf USTR can persuade Mr Trump that it’s more macho to defend American industries making big shiny metal things (aircraft) than smaller shiny metal things (cars), the president might hold off on the Section 232s.
By @AlanBeattie, The Optimist
Chad P. BownRather than bet wrong on the policies of someone like President Trump, some companies are putting off investment decisions.
Others are being forced to reckon with the consequences of higher costs, due to the tariffs of his trade war.
We are underrepresented in the profession, which is bad for everyone.
Chad P. BownEconomics is neither a welcoming nor a supportive profession for women.
But if economics is hostile to women, it is especially antagonistic to black women.
By @DrLisaDCook & @itsafronomics
Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship
Chad P. BownUK workers have not fared well since the referendum.
Immediately after the June 2016 Brexit vote, the value of the sterling fell massively. Rising import costs then hurt training, pay, and reinforced ongoing real-wage stagnation.
By @SwatDhingraLSE et al
Hailed by President Donald Trump as a major breakthrough, the US-Japan trade deal announced on September 25, 2019, actually does little more than partly restoring the benefits that Trump recklessly threw away when he pulled the United States out of...
Chad P. BownThe US-Japan pact is limited. Both sides claim they intend to return to the negotiating table in spring 2020 for a second phase of talks on a more extensive agenda.
We'll see if that happens.
By Jeff Schott
A decade after the Great Recession, Europe’s economy is still convalescing, and another period of prolonged hardship would cause serious, potentially dangerous economic and political damage. With monetary and fiscal policy unlikely to provide enough...
Chad P. BownToday, a combination of (1) cracks in the global trading system and (2) an unprecedented shortage of policy ammunition are adding to the worries about recession.
Chad P. BownNEWS: Trump administration discussing ways to limit US investors’ portfolio flows into China in a move that would have repercussions for billions of dollars in investment pegged to major stock indexes
By @Jendeben & @SDonnan