Paper prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
Andrew FurberSPI-M-O: Statement on population case detection gov.uk/government/pub… Useful statement on the utility of mass testing with important caveats e.g. "testing alone will not reduce transmission if people cannot or will not self-isolate, following the receipt of a positive test."
A paper summarising the effectiveness and harms of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).
Andrew FurberNEW: Summary of effectiveness and harms of NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions) gov.uk/government/pub… Really important assessment from SAGE #Covid19UK "A package of interventions will need to be adopted to prevent this exponential rise in cases."
National COVID-19 surveillance reports, weekly summary of findings monitored through various COVID-19 surveillance systems.
Andrew Furber1/2 National COVID-19 surveillance report gov.uk/government/pub… This week's report shows a welcome decline in Covid-19 across much of the NW thanks to the amazing efforts of local residents, with great support from colleagues in @PHE_NorthWest and local authorities. But ...
Andrew FurberNEW: This week's National COVID-19 surveillance report gov.uk/government/pub… Rates in the North West remain the highest in the country. Please take extra care.
Councils tell us how they're plugging holes in the one-size-fits-all national system, which is only reaching half the "close contacts" it could be.
Andrew FurberAnother misleading article on NHS Test and Trace. It is working, and local authorities are complementing this with targeted local action as they should (as @DPH_MAshton correctly states).
What the reproduction number can and can’t tell us about managing COVID-19.
Andrew FurberA guide to R — the pandemic’s misunderstood metric nature.com/articles/d4158… Excellent article: "it’s far more important to watch for clusters of cases and to set up comprehensive systems to test people, trace their contacts" than to focus on R. #COVID19
The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by 1 infected person.
Andrew FurberUPDATE: The R number in the UK (including regional estimates) gov.uk/guidance/the-r… Note regional estimates are less useful as case numbers fall (i.e. never look at R in isolation). #Covid19UK
Andrew FurberICYMI: R rate for North West England 1.2-1.5 with a daily growth rate of +3 to +8%. gov.uk/guidance/the-r… This is exceptionally concerning and makes it really important that we all follow the rules.
No restrictions were placed on residents’ movements, and businesses from restaurants to hairdressers stayed open
Andrew FurberJapan May Have Beaten Coronavirus Without Lockdowns or Mass Testing. But How?
time.com/5842139/japan-… International comparisons are difficult, but good messaging about avoiding the three Cs: closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings