We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections,
deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.
Nate Silver.@youyanggu estimates that 22% of Arizonans got COVID at some point, as did 23% of Floridians. (A bit lower in Texas: 15%). While these states have also improved their mask-wearing, closed some businesses, etc., those steps came pretty late in the process.
FiveThirtyEight is seeking a reporter to write about politics and elections with a particular focus on race. This person will work both independently and in col…
Nate SilverHey, so we're hiring a politics reporter!
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Evidence-based election forecasting since 2004. Since 2016 accompanied with automatically generated content.
Nate SilverOffered as an illustration of the limits of "fundamentals"-based election models:
The "Time for Change model", as specified here, predicts that Trump will lose the popular vote by ~36 points (not a typo) based on that 2Q GDP print.
A rise in virus-related deaths in a given community tends to reduce support for Republicans.
Nate SilverOne other factor to consider in how COVID could affect election forecasts is that variation in state COVID rates could conceivably be a factor in support (or lack thereof) for Trump, which could create some unusual correlations.
Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it’s calculated.
Nate SilverHow big a factor is hard to say (see article below). And having had a bad past outbreak may make people more cautious, in addition to providing immunity to some percentage of the population. But, you cannot just ignore it when comparing regions.
Nate Silver5. I think it's best to see a vaccine in combination with other interventions rather than a magic bullet. And I'd also keep in mind that the math on when we hit herd immunity is a bit complicated.
Nate SilverObviously, any poll showing the Democrat up in Texas is a pretty good result for the Democrat, but if Quinnipiac has Biden up 1 in Texas when he's up 8-9 nationally (and more than that in Q-Pac's last national poll), it's nowhere near the tipping point.
VIDEO: Ken Frazier, one of only four Black CEOs of Fortune 500 companies, speaks with Professor Tsedal Neeley about the search for a coronavirus vaccine, how racism at the workplace holds back America’s progress, and his own upbringing just one...