Following yesterday's worsening wage figures, a rise in unemployment, a fall in job numbers and fewer people looking for work paints a bleak picture for economic growth.
Nick TimiraosAustralian employment fell by -19K (vs expectations of +15K), the largest one-month drop in over three years, lifting the unemployment rate to 5.3% (from 5.2%) despite a surprise decline in labor force participation
Two top Federal Reserve officials said they don’t see a need right now for the central bank to press forward with more rate cuts after lowering the cost of short-term borrowing several times this year.
Nick TimiraosNY Fed President John Williams says monetary policy is "moderately accommodative"
Estimates of the neutral rate of interest may be considerably lower than previously thought after accounting for lower interest rates in other countries, according to new research from an economist at the Federal Reserve.
Some Democratic presidential candidates want to bring elements of German labor relations to the U.S. While that could appear attractive on the surface, doing so would be difficult and the economic payoff uncertain.
Nick TimiraosWages for US workers have risen at a faster rate than for German workers since 2000
President Trump’s top economic advisers last week arranged an Oval Office briefing with outside experts who warned the president that escalation of trade tensions with China could hurt the economy—and his re-election.
The central bank is buying short-term Treasury debt, but officials say the purchases are nothing like the bond-buying stimulus unleashed by the central bank between 2008 and 2014 to support the economy.
Nick TimiraosA primer on the Fed’s latest balance sheet expansion: Where earlier purchases were designed to expand the Fed’s asset holdings, today the central bank is focused on fine-tuning its liabilities
Nellie Liang discusses the dangers of having looser financial regulations at the time of monetary policy easing.
Nick TimiraosNellie Liang, a former senior Fed economist on financial stability, warns that the recent recalibration of monetary policy (from tightening to easing) means the Fed needs to rethink its longer-running recalibration on regulation (from tightening to easing)
The Federal Reserve will begin buying Treasury bills on Tuesday to boost its balance sheet and avoid a recurrence of the unexpected strains experienced in money markets last month.
Nick TimiraosThe Fed said it will purchase Treasury bills at least into the second quarter of 2020, starting at $60 billion a month
The FOMC agreed unanimously on the plan during a video conference on Friday, Oct. 4
Central bank calls on music stars to record upbeat songs explaining inflation targeting, monetary policy and consistent GDP growth.
Nick TimiraosThe head of comms at Jamaica’s central bank, a former hotel talent booker, wanted to marry reggae with monetary policy
Songs about foreign-exchange policy were “too complicated,” he said. But inflation targeting is something “everyone should know about”
The Fed voted to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point for the second time in as many months to cushion the economy against a global slowdown amplified by the U.S.-China trade war. But the central bankers were divided over the decision...
Nick TimiraosThe Fed cut its rate by a quarter point
-Three dissents (two hawks, one dove)
-median dots show no more cuts, but a substantial minority projects one
-cut IOER by 5 bps relative to the fed funds target
-No announcement on balance sheet changes
The Federal Reserve is likely to cut its short-term benchmark rate at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The big question is what kind of clues the central bank offers about any more rate reductions.
Nick TimiraosWhat to watch at Wednesday's Fed meeting:
-a quarter point rate cut is expected
-how does Powell characterize the current cutting episode
-do a majority of FOMC participants pencil in another '19 cut?
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is leading his colleagues to cut rates by a quarter percentage point at their meeting this week, for the second time in as many months.
Nick TimiraosFed officials are making policy decisions one meeting at a time—attempting to provide enough stimulus to keep the economy expanding without promising too much. Officials are also more divided over how to set policy with such an uncertain outlook
Warning signals are starting to flash in the market for junk debt, an indicator that investors are worried that companies with high debt loads could be at risk even if the U.S. economy avoids recession.
Nick TimiraosWarning signals are starting to flash in the market for junk debt and continued flashing through a recent surge in demand for Treasurys and investment-grade corporate debt
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cranked out profits after the financial crisis, and Congress couldn’t come up with a good alternative to them. Now, the Trump administration has a roadmap for reprivatizing them.