In his death, the Iranian general may cost the United States far more than it gained by his killing.
Rob MalleyThis by Bill Burns & @CrisisGroup trustee Jake Sullivan:
“America is stumbling into a tragedy of its own making. The Iranian regime is poised to once again reap the rewards, turning Soleimani’s loss into a long-term gain.”
Friends and foes alike no longer know where the United States stands. As Washington overpromises and underdelivers, regional powers are seeking solutions on their own—both…
Rob MalleyIt's that time of the year again -- here are our Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2020.
Always a very hard list to come up with, and as usual we unfortunately were spoiled for choice. Waiting for the day when we will be unable to come up with 10...
Tehran has been scaling back compliance in retaliation for President Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 agreement.
Rob MalleyAs I told the @nytimes, Iran’s decision “will come as a surprise only to those who believed in the fantasy that the Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign somehow would lead Tehran to agree to more stringent measures."
Traditionally, a strong rising power has challenged a weakening incumbent, making the outcome preordained. But the outcome of the current struggle between China and the United States is far from inevitable, because the powers of both the aspirant...
Rob Malley“China & America look like two tired boxers who go at each other for 15 grueling rounds, not to determine who will stay upright, but rather to discover who will be the first not to go down”
From the inestimable & thought-provoking @arvindsubraman
The commander of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces told a senior US diplomat, "You are leaving us to be slaughtered," demanding to know whether the US is going to do anything to protect Syrian Kurds as Turkey continues its military operation...
Rob MalleyCommander of Kurdish forces in #Syria to US official:
"I need to know if u are capable of protecting my people, stopping these bombs falling on us or not... If not, I need to make a deal w/Russia & regime now & invite their planes to protect this region”
The annual United Nations General Assembly high-level session in the last week of September offered leaders and diplomats the chance to address today’s gravest crises. UN Director Richard Gowan and Senior Analyst Ashish Pradhan reflect on what...
Rob MalleyEverything you'd want to know about what just happened at #UNGA19 from the person you'd want to know it from
Rob Malley.@NickKristof: "Trump has a genuine dilemma: Inaction may be perceived as weakness, while military strikes may escalate and drag us into cataclysm. But this is a dilemma of Trump’s own making".
Sudan’s military junta and opposition have agreed to form a civilian-led administration to steer a transition toward free and fair elections. But the generals signed only under pressure. All Sudanese – and outside partners – will need to remain...
Rob Malley« The achievements of the Sudanese people are remarkable, not just in ending Bashir’s rule but in standing up to the junta’s series of schemes to seamlessly replace the ousted strongman w/a like-minded lieutenant »
Our statement on the way forward👇
For months, the Trump administration has been talking in increasingly alarming terms about the Iranian threat. Now, the president wants his people to cool down the hot rhetoric.
Rob MalleyHook says goals are: "deprive regime of money to support destabilizing activities" & "bring it to negotiating table” for “new and better [nuclear] deal”.
Iran's actions are now worse & it's walking away from current deal. Time to re-examine strategy?
A series of escalations in both word and deed have raised fears of U.S.-Iranian military confrontation, either direct or by proxy. It is urgent that cooler heads prevail – in European capitals as in Tehran and Washington – to head off the threat of...
Rob MalleyOur just-released Conflict Alert on risks of escalation b/n the US and Iran:
“The wait-and-see period may have reached the end of its natural life. A crisis that Trump may not want but that some of his advisers may not mind lies just around the corner”
If I were to ask you to tell me what you know about the Yemen conflict, I might expect a variety of answers. As a...
Rob Malley"What if I were to tell you that Yemen is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis? That it was the most calamitous crisis that many have never heard about?"
Our trustee @Frank_Giustra on the conflict in #Yemen & how @CrisisGroup is trying to end it
A failed uprising by Venezuelan National Assembly Chair Juan Guaidó has emboldened President Nicolás Maduro and deepened the country's political deadlock. However difficult, outside actors should continue to press the two sides to form a...
Rob MalleyAfter odd insurrection-that-wasn’t, Maduro won this round, Guaido lost it. But basics haven't changed: #Venezuela faces political & economic crisis & requires negotiations w/o threat of military intervention or crackdown on the opposition
The Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran is more likely to fuel resistance and retaliation than capitulation. Washington should heed past lessons lest it provokes a new nuclear crisis or a regional escalation.
Rob MalleyThough "there is little doubt that the policy of "maximum pressure" has inflicted considerable economic duress – & stands to push Iran’s economy into further decline – it is far less certain that it will achieve its strategic objectives."
The scars in the country run deep—and the U.S. shares responsibility.
Rob Malley1/ My latest w/@StephenPomper on #yemen for @TheAtlantic
« The US is left w/painful questions: What would have happened if it had rejected Saudis’ original pleas, set tighter limits on its support, exerted more pressure on its partners? ...