Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Senior writer @fivethirtyeight. Covering politics, the courts, gender, religion, and more. Virginian in the Midwest. Say hello: [email protected]
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Why Millions Of Americans Don’t Vote
Distrust of the electoral system, disillusionment with politics and systemic barriers can cause voters to skip elections, according to the FiveThirtyEight poll with Ipsos. We found that most Americans vote inconsistently or when the stakes are just...
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Millions of eligible voters won't vote in 2020. But millions who don't vote regularly will go out of their way to cast a ballot, too.
Why do Americans vote, or not vote, in any given year? Our new survey @FiveThirtyEight has more. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/non-voters-pol… pic.twitter.com/fWPhrFUs7z
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
One finding from our survey worth highlighting: 54% of Black and 35% of Hispanic ppl think the Republicans don't want people like them to vote. That's a HUGE chunk of ppl thinking a major party doesn't want them to participate at all.
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The Economy Won’t Be Back To Normal Until 2022 Or Later, According To Our Survey Of Economists
It’s been about four months since the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the U.S. was officially in a recession, and what a weird recession — a…
How Conservative Is Amy Coney Barrett?
Just how conservative is Amy Coney Barrett? It’s a question we’ve asked before with other appellate judges who have been nominated to the Supreme Court — most r…
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
In just 3 years, Amy Coney Barrett has emerged as one of the most conservative judges on a court full of Republican appointees, according to 2 new analyses of her 7th Circuit record. My story @fivethirtyeight with @laurabronner @wiederkehra
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Why The Supreme Court’s Reputation Is At Stake
Four planned days of Senate confirmation hearings for President Trump’s latest Supreme Court nominee, Judge Amy Coney Barrett, begin today. And they are going t…
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Barrett's nomination isn't the only thing on the line this week. The Supreme Court's reputation is also at stake. Public confidence in the court has eroded - and if it's perceived as partisan, it could decay even more. My story @FiveThirtyEight fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-t… pic.twitter.com/jasR6c1Pgo
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September’s Jobs Report Is A Political Rorschach Test
The final jobs report before the presidential election is here. In September, 661,000 more people were employed than in August, and the unemployment rate fell t…
How A Conservative 6-3 Majority Would Reshape The Supreme Court
President Trump’s third nominee to the Supreme Court is Amy Coney Barrett. The nomination process is moving ahead at warp speed, and the court is that much clos…
How Amy Coney Barrett Could Change The Supreme Court
Tomorrow will mark the start of what could be one of the swiftest Supreme Court fights in modern history. On Saturday, just a week after the death of Justice Ru…
What The Supreme Court’s Unusually Big Jump To The Right Might Look Like
With the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, President Trump will have his third opportunity to nominate a justice to the country’s highest cour…
Experts Think The Economy Would Be Stronger If COVID-19 Lockdowns Had Been More Aggressive
Back in the early days of the coronavirus in the U.S., many economists believed that aggressive lockdowns would be the best long-term solution for managing the …
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Did the lockdowns this spring go too far, or not far enough? We asked 32 macroeconomists. The result was not ambiguous.
74% said the U.S. would be in a better economic position now if lockdowns had been *more* aggressive at the beginning of the crisis.
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More And More Americans Aren’t Religious. Why Are Democrats Ignoring These Voters?
Democrats are once again doubling down on religion this year. Faith was on full display during the Democratic National Convention, where Joe Biden closed out th…
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Nonreligious voters were 30% of the electorate in 2018. They're also overwhelmingly likely to vote for Democratic candidates. Yet they mostly get ignored by the party.
Why? And is that a mistake?
My story with the great @dcoxpolls @FiveThirtyEight fivethirtyeight.com/features/more-… pic.twitter.com/Rwk3iqmLAc
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The Easy Part Of The Economic Recovery Might Be Over
Is the economy finally starting to rebound? Based on the headline numbers from the August jobs report, things sure look that way. The report shows that the econ…
How Trump And COVID-19 Have Reshaped The Modern Militia Movement
In the video, the host of a local independent news radio program surveys the late-night shadows of a Kenosha, Wisconsin, car lot. You can just make out four men…
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Trump and COVID-19 have reshaped the modern militia movement - in ways that experts warn could lead to more violence. My story with @maggiekb1 @FiveThirtyEight
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Women Won The Right To Vote 100 Years Ago. They Didn’t Start Voting Differently From Men Until 1980.
Women officially won the right to vote just a few months before the 1920 presidential election, and as soon as the 19th Amendment was ratified, suffragists were…
What Economists Fear Will Happen Without More Unemployment Aid
A sudden uptick in food insecurity. A wave of evictions. People spending less money at shops and restaurants. More job losses. According to leading economists, …
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They’re Wrong.
Will you get robbed this year? How would you rate your chances? Over 10 years, from 1994 to 2004, the national Survey of Economic Expectations asked respondents…
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Trump has been talking a lot about crime this summer. That could tap into Americans' inaccurate belief that crime is rising - when it's actually been falling for decades.
Why are Americans so wrong about crime? My story with @maggiekb1 @fivethirtyeight
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How The Pandemic Could Force A Generation Of Mothers Out Of The Workforce
For the past few months, Alicia Wertz has barely seen her husband. Since schools closed in their northern Alabama town in March, they’ve been single-mindedly fo…
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
The pandemic could derail the careers of a generation of working mothers. My story with @Neil_Paine @FiveThirtyEight
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Republicans And Democrats See COVID-19 Very Differently. Is That Making People Sick?
Is partisanship making the COVID-19 pandemic worse?
Economists Think Congress Should Keep Paying Unemployed Workers $600 A Week — Or Even More
Experts say support for jobless workers and local governments will help the economy the most.
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
We asked 33 economists what Congress should do about the $600/week payment for jobless workers.
There was a clear consensus: To help the economy right now, keep paying unemployed $600/week - or even more. My story with @Neil_Paine @FiveThirtyEight
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Roberts Is The New Swing Justice. That Doesn’t Mean He’s Becoming More Liberal.
This Supreme Court term belonged to John Roberts. The chief justice was in the majority in nearly every case. And he quite literally had the last word, as he wr…
The Supreme Court’s Big Rulings Were Surprisingly Mainstream This Year
The court’s much-anticipated conservative revolution didn’t really happen this year. To be sure, the last few weeks of the term were full of consequential decisions that hinged on just one vote. But even though there were some fierce disagreements...
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Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux
Sometimes I write a story for @FiveThirtyEight where the words are just dressing for a fantastic chart. The Supreme Court's opinions were *very* in line with Americans' views this term, as @wiederkehra's gorgeous graphic shows fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-s… pic.twitter.com/u3ww4JBUXt
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