Humans are bad at predicting futures that don't benefit them, writes
Humans are bad at predicting futures that don't benefit them, writes
Humans are bad at predicting futures that don't benefit them #manufacturednormalcyfield
A critical manifestation of cognitive bias that we all need to understand: Humans Are Bad at Predicting Futures That Don’t Benefit Them
Good read on foresight and cognitive biases that influence development planning: Humans Are Bad at Predicting Futures That Don’t Benefit Them - via
Wow. Far from being pessimists we tend to be too optimistic about future events involving us.
"Most of us, for example, are naturally more sanguine and hopeful than logic would justify" (CP 5.366).
“Humans Are Bad at Predicting Futures That Don’t Benefit Them” People think bad things are less likely to happen to them than to others and good things more often.
Humans are bad at predicting the future--especially futures that don't benefit them:
Do our desires affect our predictions? & can we overcome this bias by listening to diverse views?
False optimism is the norm for (incorrect) predictions, but I'd like to put in a good word for guarded optimism...
Pinker is surely right that we're too pessimistic about the world, but there's an interesting hypothesis that we're too *optimistic* about events which affect our own futures.
Humans are bad at predicting futures that don't benefit them, writes
"Unrealistic optimism" is probably what has created human civilization.
"In 2015, 65% of … American workers predicted that automation would monopolize most of the work currently performed by humans within 50 years. But 80% of workers believed that their own jobs would remain intact."
Humans are bad at predicting futures that don't benefit them, writes tx
Good, wide-ranging article about this topic