Have your lunch with a side of optimism, from me and . We do that thing where we argue against type: we both study leaders, but we think structural factors will matter more with North Korea.
Are Trump and/or Kim going to trigger a war? Check out my new piece in on the risk of war with North Korea, written with
Why nuclear war with North Korea is less likely than you think
It’s important and reassuring that and , two scholars who have researched the role of leadership in affecting foreign policy outcomes, stress the structural constraints in this piece.
ICYMI, my new w/ : How much will leaders matter for the US-North Korea standoff? We both study leaders, but our answer may surprise you.
It’s also why (who also wrote a book on why leaders matter) and I still think the odds of war are pretty low even if the summit fails, per our earlier piece. A lot of structural factors in the way of war. 8/n
Excuse me while I find a corner to re-read this 100 times to remind myself that I still believe it (cc )
, authors of cornerstone works on effects of individual leaders on IR, argue that structural factors >> individual factors in current US-DPRK bargaining.
Worried about North Korea? Fret not, and remind readers about the importance of structural forces in driving global events. See their latest, via :
Worried about North Korea? Fret not, and remind readers about the importance of structural forces in driving global events. See their latest, via :
. & put Trump-KJU tweet-off in perspective.
New analysis by and : Why nuclear war with #NorthKorea is less likely than you think via
Worrying about the risk of nuclear war with North Korea? See my piece yesterday in w/
I think war is unlikely for the same reasons it's always been, but I know others disagree. See my take here
A good piece by two smart scholars, and , on the structural constraints blocking war with North Korea. The headline, which I don't agree with, does the piece a disservice
. in : Why nuclear #war with #NorthKorea is less likely than you think,
A nice piece by and offers a more optimistic NKorea assessment: (Funny—I’m usually a structuralist and they usually focus on leaders. A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, I guess.)
At , researcher says "#NuclearWar with #NorthKorea is less likely than you think" in the .
Why nuclear war with North Korea is less likely than you think
On the odds of a nuclear war: those like & are right to note Trump's role in raising it last year, though there were already strong constraints limiting the odds of war as & I wrote in January
Read on the odds of nuclear war with North Korea here
With nuclear war, "less likely" is not good enough.
If you're looking for a good night's rest, here's a piece by two political scientists arguing that nuclear war with N. Korea is less likely than it might appear.
1/2 Are structural forces constraining or enabling foreign policy hawks? Constraining, say and
Why nuclear war with North Korea is less likely than you think
Why nuclear war with North Korea is less likely than you think
Great analysis of why structural constraints in Korea make nuclear war unlikely despite personalities of Trump and KJU. But it skips over the most worrisome factor here: organizational routines and the risk of accidents, as in Sagan's Limits of Safety.
Why nuclear war with North Korea is less likely than you think