Birth Rates Dropped Most in Counties Where Home Values Grew Most
A recent decline in fertility was sharpest in counties where home values rose the most, and the change was smaller—and sometimes even up —where home value growth was weaker.
This is a really fascinating report from Zillow, with some deep implications. 1) Fertility rates have fallen 2X more in markets where home prices are rising fastest. Many young ppl in these metros have to choose between a kid and a home.
Millennials in pricey cities literally cannot afford to pay for housing and have kids. Fertility rates have dropped about 13% in the priciest U.S. housing markets, twice as much as the national average
Why couldn't this just mean that people who want kids are increasingly living in lower-cost areas, and/or people who don't want kids are increasingly moving to high-cost areas? Housing costs aren't necessarily causing reduced fertility.
Every 10% increase in home values this decade has been associated with a 1.5% drop in fertility rates among Millennials. In SoCal, birth rates have dropped 16-19%. In Oakland, they're down 24%. In Seattle, down 18%
Some of America's most prosperous and housing-supply constrained cities have the lowest birth rates