Actuarial Life Table
The worst hot take of the hour is that probably the folks who will die of covid19 were all inches from death so there's no actual increase in mortality. Average life expectancy at age 80 is 8-10 years; at 90, it's still 4-5 years.
Chance of dying <1yr from all causes for men: Age 20: 0.12% Age 30: 0.18% Age 40: 0.24% Age 50: 0.50% Age 60: 1.15% Age 70: 2.31% Age 80: 5.77% Age 90: 16.37% Germany's "Wuhan" if infected with COVID: 0.37%? Denmark per SSI? <0.4%#endthelockdown
I don't know who needs to hear this, but the average additional years of life expectancy for 80 year old Americans is not 0. It's 8.
Really not a central issue here, but since people are talking about the candidates' ages, saying "3 in their 70s" is pretty misleading. On average, a 70-year-old woman can expect to live another 16 years; a 77-year-old man only 10.
Expected remaining years of life, from SSA actuarial tables: Sanders: 9 Bloomberg: 9 Biden: 10 Trump: 12 Warren: 17
Here's a real look at death rates by age. Next year we can look at total deaths and see if they spiked vis a via historical data.
8.28 & 9.68 respectively
Rogue Works Progress Admı̇nistration
That's life expectancy at birth. The conditional probability of an American male dying any given year in his 70s is about 5%.
Life itself has a high IFR. Chances of dying in one year: 20: 0.11% 30: 0.18% 40: 0.24% 50: 0.50% 60: 1.15% 70: 2.29% 80: 5.82% 90: 16.54% 100: 35.42%
A side effect of having older candidates is there's a real chance the next president dies in office. - Trump, Biden, Bernie have ~80-85% chances of living through next term. - Biden, Bernie have ~55% chances of living through two terms. Actuarial table
David Y.T. Chen
So one misleading “conventional wisdom” is not to screen a man with life expectancy <10 yrs—but if you apply the inverse (do screen men with life exp >10 yrs) =77 for average man #pcsm
Next month he will turn 73, and he needs to live less than a year from there to reach Super Tuesday in 2020 (and even about 11 months to live through all of them). So apparently 97%. But that only accounts for age and gender, not race or wealth.
David Y.T. Chen
Counterpoint: I agree one can say safe to wait to 4 cm, but here life expectancy is long (>19 yrs per SSA
) So I don’t see advantage of waiting to do PN when likely harder when larger (at best is =). If likely needed, what is gained by long delay? #kcsm
Social Security Admin: -a woman of Ginsburg’s age (85) is expected to live another 7 years -a man of Breyer’s age (80) is expected to live another 8 years SO: how about those calling RBG “reckless” & “selfish” STFU unless saying same of Breyer
2/2 go up to 60% when you're 106, so what? At 50%, the chance of 10 more years without death is 2(10) or 1:1000. 20 yrs = 1:1000000. NOTE - a) I'm NOT a statistician & shouldn't play 1 on Twitter and b) I made the 50% up - but Soc Sec says 47%