Why a Long Democratic Primary Slugfest Might Help Re-elect Trump
The party’s crowded field and messy rules could lead to months of infighting and an ugly convention.
Now that this 737-MAX has reached cruising altitude, here's my new
Op-Ed on how the DNC's primary rules could lead to a [insert transportation mishap metaphor here] in 2020, inadvertently helping reelect Trump.
The New York Times argues that a long drawn out primary and contested convention may help re-elect Trump. Did a long contested GOP primary in 2016 help Clinton?
In fact, the prospect of a deeply fractured Milwaukee convention decided by *superdelegates* on the 2nd (or 3rd or 4th) ballot should terrify Dems a whole lot more than, say, the dead-end candidacy of Howard Schultz.
Interesting how often the current Democratic Party is described as "highly fractious" (in the words of this Wasserman piece). I think you could make a decent case that Democrats today are as unified as they've been in their entire history as a party...
the next year and a half seems likely to be filled with a lot of "Why ____ that Democrats are doing might actually help Trump"
Trump May Have an Unlikely Re-election Ally
36-46% of Democratic delegates will be (~proportionally) allocated in early March, decreasing the change of a clear majority nominee in a big field; even if that doesn't lead to an unsettled convention, it could increase factional division
Key pt from
: “Had the 2016 Republican primary played out under Democrats’ rules, it would have almost assuredly resulted in an ugly, contested convention.”