RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
RealClearPolitics - Election 2020 - 2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Sean T at RCP
I don't want to oversell this, but Bloomberg is quietly gaining traction in national polling. Probably too quietly for it to matter, but still...
Post debate, Kamala Harris has officially taken over 3rd place in the RCP National Average, dropping Warren to 4th.
Here is where the candidates on stage tonight stand in aggregate polling on RCP as of today. Now tell me this isn't a joke. Biden 32.2 Harris 10.8 Yang 1.8 Booker 1.7 Castro 1.0 Gabbard 0.8 Gillibrand 0.5 DeBlasio 0.5 Bennet 0.2 Inslee 0.0
Bloomberg early run showing that, to a point at least, massive spending works. Fifth in RCP average of national polls. Would easily qualify for debates if that were only requirement.
This is complete BS. Sanders was polling at 19-20% in the RCP average at the end of April, and he's at 17.3% now. Rather than surging, he's lost a couple points.
While Trump dominates the news, Joe Biden is rapidly losing his lead in the Democratic race. In RCP average of national polls, Biden lead Aug 1 was 15.6 points. Sept 1 13.5 points. Sept 15 9.7 points. Today: 2.2 points.
Sanders's announcement bounce seems to have faded, as he's back to polling in the low 20s or high teens instead of the mid/high 20s.
Biden and Warren are basically tied in the RCP nationl average btw -- Biden up by only 0.3 now
Well, *somebody* is going to win the nomination. Progressive wing big. Combine Sanders/Harris/Warren and you get 43 percentage points, to Biden's 28.
Beto O'Rourke is now bellow where he was in the polls before he made his gun confiscation comments at the last debate, according to the Real Clear Politics average. He was at 2.8 before the post-debate polls. He's at 2.4 now.
Warren and Harris have something in common today: Only two Dems with their highest polling yet in the RCP average. Sanders is down 8.8 points from his peak, Biden is down 14.2 points (!) from his own peak.
#National Democratic Primary, RCP Average: Biden 28.4 Sanders 18.2 Warren 15.8 Buttigieg 9.2 Bloomberg 5.2 Yang 3.2 Klobuchar 2.6 Booker 2.0 Steyer 1.6 Gabbard 1.4 Castro 1.2 Bennet 0.8 Delaney 0.6 Patrick 0.4
This week's RCP National Avg: Biden & Warren slip, Sanders bounces back to pre-heart attack levels, Buttigieg separates from Harris in 4th.
Elizabeth Warren is now ahead of Bernie Sanders in the RealClearPolitics average of the polls.
Biden’s lead now in RCP average almost what it was before first Dem debate
"...and keep rising in the polls." RCP Average: Oct 3: Yang 3.8% Today: Yang 2.8%
Since Warren peaked in the
avg on Oct. 9 at 26.8... Biden 27.6 (↑ 0.6) Warren 20.4 (↓ 6.4) Sanders 17.0 (↑ 2.2) Buttigieg 7.1 (↑ 1.9)
It's official. Monmouth is an outlier.
Add up all the Democrats who’ve qualified for the debate stage and you get 81%. The Dems who seem to be missing the cut, combined, are at 4%.
poll average, Biden has fully regained all the support he lost in the aftermath of the first debate. 32% before. 32% now. Of course, now he has to survive the second debate.
Warren now at 14.2 in RCP average, has lost nearly half of her share of the vote since early October
Biden’s lead over Warren in RCP average down to 1.7 points
FYI, movement in the RCP National Average from October 1 - October 30: Buttigieg +2.0 Biden +0.5 Harris +0.3 Beto -0.1 Yang -1.0 Sanders -1.1 Warren -2.0
If the trend continues, in the very near future Elizabeth Warren will pass Joe Biden in the RCP National Avg. She's now less than a point behind.
Beto was at 2.8% in the Real Clear Politics average before the post-debate polls dropped. All the attention his gun confiscation comments got him has moved him up to 3%. So, it hasn't worked as a campaign ploy so far.
After 1 day in 2nd, Biden has inched back to 1st in the RCP avg
BUT that's only bc of a new YouGov poll in which he placed a slightly better 2nd than last wk Warren has a small lead in each poll, except for Morning Consult which has Biden +12
I'd been skeptical of Warren's chances, based on polling, but I wonder if this is sort of like 2008 now, where, the moment you see cracks in the obvious front-runner, people start jumping ship
At this point I would really welcome a debate that was only the top five. That would be Biden, Warren, Sanders, Buttigieg, and Harris. That’s everybody over 5% in the national RCP average.
In 7th place according to
combo of polls
For a while, national Dem race had a Big Four--Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris. Now, looks like a Big Three, with Harris joining Buttigieg in a second tier before the dropoff to everybody else. From
Biden is no longer the Democratic front-runner according to the RCP poll average. Warren now leads by 0.2 percentage points in the national average.
There was a school of thought that said Joe Biden would begin to fall in polls the moment he announced, that his first day in the race would be his best day. I thought that. Was totally wrong. Just the opposite has happened. From RCP average:
I was correct when I predicted Bloomberg would handicap Buttigieg. This leaves Biden well out ahead, and Warren has already failed.
Put another way, in RCP average, Biden support greater than Warren, Harris, Buttigieg, O'Rourke, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, Yang, Gabbard, Ryan, Williamson put together.
From RCP, Biden lead stabilizes for moment at 18.5 points over Sanders, 26 over Warren, 27.5 over Harris, 29.2 over Buttigieg.
In 6 most recent national polls in RCP average, Biden lead over next candidate in field is 6, 10, 12, 7, 12, 10 points. Average lead 9.5 points. On Sept 1, average lead was 13.5 points. On Aug 1, it was 15.6 points.
Today on "can I call em or what"? The Monmouth poll is overridden by five new polls all which have Biden above 30
FWIW, Williamson is at 0.5 percent in the RCP poll average, despite some hot takes about how her debate performances were going to give her a boost.
look at trend lines for Biden and Warren -- candidates moving in opposite directions
Happy New Year. On first day of 2020, a look at the state of a few things in presidential politics. Like the Democratic race, shown by RCP average: So far, at least, Biden abides.
Warren 'has been rising like a rocket in the polls," says Farhad Manjoo. She's gone from 6 percent in RCP average in December 2018 to ... 8 percent today.
Of the three Dem frontrunners, the only one trending up in the polls over the past month is Bernie
RCP average: Biden 29.0 Sanders 22.0 Harris 11.3 Warren 7.0 Booker 5.8 O'Rourke 5.3 Klobuchar 3.7 Hickenlooper 1.0 Castro 0.8 Gabbard 0.8 Gillibrand 0.5 Inslee 0.5
Officer Baby Yoda Tulsa PD
It's very important to you to keep lying about their gains in popularity. They've been flat for months.
I know what The NY Times means when it writes, “the 2020 Democratic field has been defined by its turbulence,” but… at least in terms of the frontrunner, it hasn’t been that turbulent.
Noah Smith 🐇
Bernie up 4.5 percentage points from post-heart-attack low. Closing in on front-runner status as Buttigieg saps voters from Warren and Biden:
HARRIS: [something] WARREN: Honestly I don't check my mentions HARRIS: but WARREN
Notes on the RCP Dem polling average: 1. Buttigieg surpasses Harris for the first time. 2. A grand total of 10 candidates are polling at under 1%. How do they pay staff?
My apologies, Gillibrand is actually at 0.5 percent.
Maybe the Democratic tiers are: 1) Biden; 2) Sanders, Warren, Harris; 3) Buttigieg; and 4) everybody else.
Biden was beating Warren 39-8 less than two months ago. Latest poll says it's 26-16. Tell me again how he's such a great candidate.
surge in the polls is so exciting
Really interesting to see Harris's numbers not just overtake Warren's but completely cannibalize Biden's since the debates:
Lesson learned: Mess with Texas, pay the price. I respect your commitment to #Beto2020. But these #s are bleak - For Beto, DeBlasio, Castro & all below them. I'd like Beto on US stage & Senate seems his best shot, despite good Dems in race. Good luck y'all
Pete is about to move to #4 nationally over Kamala.
Sure looks like Biden is taking supports from Sanders in particular. Anyone have a theory why?
If I was
I’d never forgive
or the msm for destroying my one legit shot at the White House!
Biden's RCP polling average has gone up 4.7 points since the impeachment hearings started. Low-info Dem voters who hadn't realized he was a target of Trump's and are now rallying around him? I don't have a better theory.
Here, for comparison, is what the polls look like. (And here are links to both: