Update to our post-election 2018 analysis, posted here! Thread. 1/x
Interesting: "There has been a lot of attention paid to the Democratic victories in suburban areas, but we find that Democratic gains were actually largest in rural areas. These gains weren’t enough to get over 50% and win seats in many rural districts..."
Trump won PA overwhelmingly based on swing voters, not changes in relative turnout. Other tipping point states (FL, MI, WI) were more mixed, but included lots of vote choice shifts; 2018 congressional shift back again due mostly to swing vote, not turnout:
I promised yesterday I'd share my fav. / chart that didn't make the tweetstorm. This one decomposes our estimates of the impact of persuasion vs. turnout in the 2016 and 2012 elections.
This is insanely fascinating new data and analysis on the 2018 midterms. Two charts that should worry R’s most: Shift in vote preference to D’s (not just turnout) and plenty of room for D’s to grow youth vote in 2020
It’s always both, but 2012->2016 change was mostly about persuasion, not turnout change; 2008->2012 change was more of a mixture
In case this gets out of hand, the original post is here and I'm taking the numbers as given, just as an exercise in redrawing the graph properly. I don't know how good the estimates actually are.
Mobilization/persuasion tradeoffs loom large in the world of takes, but typically when you do better in an election it’s because you get better at both.