Trump’s persistent unpopularity may not make a difference on election day. “It’s striking, for example, that Trump’s approval ratings are, at this point, very similar to those of two recent presidents who went on to win reelection by resounding margins.”
There are many reasons why Trump might lose in 2020. His scandals. His bigotry. A looming recession. Even so, I think that it is at this stage more likely than not that he will reelection. Here’s why. [Thread.]
Does “Trump could win again” even count as a prediction?
Trump is an abnormal president. It's perfectly possible that he will also prove abnormal in a more prosaic way—by losing his bid for reelection. But what is eminently possible need not be likely. Please read (and share) the full article !
This obvious but overlooked point that Mounk makes me think Trump is by default the favorite to win 2020