"A worrying signal from the ISM Manufacturing Survey follows an inversion of the yield curve, and it no longer makes sense to keep explaining such signs away" via
Does Calling Two Strikes Mean Trump's Cold War Team is Almost Out? The ISM was this low Nov 30, 2012 & Jan 29, 2016, but the yield curve was not then inverted. The Fed might be able to alleviate the yield curve but not trade costs to manufacturers & farms.