Quite a rare stratospheric warming (in the observational record) ongoing for the Southern Hemisphere. I am a bit surprised there is not more interest. [Graphs from and ]
1/8: The big question looms again: Will there be a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) this winter? The stratosphere has been rather unsettled this November (pink line) — will we see a wind reversal, or even an impact on surface weather? A thread. Fig from
Tremendous record-breaking wave-1 amplitude at 10 hPa! During the build-up to the most recent 2 SSWs, it seems to me that 'false alarm SSWs' can increase when wave-1 is unusually high (models want to break down vortex too soon)... Image:
“Would you believe...” that the temperature ~30km above the South Pole is almost above freezing? And even before the solstice (i.e., it’s still dark at the ground) Incredible... (0C = 273K)