One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds
Signs that the president’s advantage in the Electoral College has persisted or even increased since 2016.
Big thing in
’s polls that I don’t see people paying enough attention to is all three Democrats are running slightly ahead of Clinton with white voters but behind with black & hispanic ones.
poll shows more undecided, less Trump support in Michigan, Pennsylvania, & Wisconsin than did similar recent
New polling from
in battleground states shows Warren getting crushed by Trump among likely voters, Bernie doing somewhat better, Biden doing the best. Thoughts?
"Nearly two-thirds of the Trump voters who said they voted for Democratic congressional candidates in 2018 say that they’ll back the president against all three named opponents (Biden, Warren, Sanders)."
Nicholas H Wolfinger
This nonsense ran in a front page article in today's paper edition of NYT. Except for the single datum I circled, every single number is within the margin of error of +/- 4.4 (5.1 for Michigan).
The biggest finding here is that no Democrat is ahead of Trump in the places that voted for Obama and then flipped to Trump. No Democrat, in other words, is speaking to the heartland.
Khalil G. Muhammad
41% of Biden supporters but not Warren say agree most women for pres. “just aren’t that likable”... mostly male and working class,55% agree discr. against whites is as bad as against POC;79% agree that p.c. gone too far;54% would reduce legal immigration.
So I asked
this question but I'm guessing he didn't see it. Would love to know how this question was phrased. (It's not in the dataset)
The most surprising, and important, sentence in the .
piece about the NYT/Siena poll: "On average over the last three cycles, head-to-head polls a year ahead of the election have been as close to the final result as those taken the day before."