Nonvoters do not seem poised to save the Democrats in the six key battleground states, based on an analysis of more than 600 nonvoters in our Times/Siena polls. Despite their demographics, they are not much likelier to back Democrats than voters
Registered Nonvoters in swing states are slightly Dem leaning but culturally conservative; they like Sanders Nonvoting Blacks are not as monolithically Dem Nonvoting Latinos in AZ are pure Dems The mobilization case might need to be Latino-specific
RE: the article on non-voters, I have a strong prior that the opinions of non-voters who end up voting will converge heavily to those of voters as they tune in over the cycle. Has anyone used a panel to look at this explicitly?
There's a large pool of non-voters who would probably back Democrats if they did vote. But compared to loyal Democratic voters, they are more conservative on cultural issues.