Nonvoters Are a Source of Hope for Democrats. But Maybe a False Hope.
Demographically, they seem like people who’d want to vote out Trump. Yet at least in the battleground states, many favor Republicans.
Nonvoters do not seem poised to save the Democrats in the six key battleground states, based on an analysis of more than 600 nonvoters in our Times/Siena polls. Despite their demographics, they are not much likelier to back Democrats than voters
Registered Nonvoters in swing states are slightly Dem leaning but culturally conservative; they like Sanders Nonvoting Blacks are not as monolithically Dem Nonvoting Latinos in AZ are pure Dems The mobilization case might need to be Latino-specific
article on non-voters, I have a strong prior that the opinions of non-voters who end up voting will converge heavily to those of voters as they tune in over the cycle. Has anyone used a panel to look at this explicitly?
There's a large pool of non-voters who would probably back Democrats if they did vote. But compared to loyal Democratic voters, they are more conservative on cultural issues.
And my latest article on the theme: