CMIP6 is the next generation of climate models being run in the lead-up to the 2021 IPCC 6th Assessment Report (AR6). Over at Carbon Brief we've put together an in-depth explainer of what scenarios and experiments are being run and of results so far 1/18
NEW - CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
UPDATED - CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
We've updated our explainer on the new generation of climate models (CMIP6) to include the latest climate sensitivity estimates and some discussion of their implications. Take a look!
This has been a slightly crazy week for me... Monday - CMIP6 explainer: Tuesday - 2019 CO2 emissions: Wednesday – Evaluating old climate models: Thursday – Trump's war on coal:
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained | #archive
UPDATED - CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained, via "These models simulate the physics, chemistry and biology of the atmosphere, land and oceans in great detail, and require some of the largest supercomputers in the world."
New climate models generated by a new generation of computing power show the second worst-case scenario delivering a level of heating equal to the old worst-case scenario. So lower CO2 concentrations = more heating than previously forecast. Not good.
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained | #archive
We've updated our CMIP6 explainer to include the latest climate sensitivity results (via ). Thirteen CMIP6 models (in yellow) have sensitivity higher than the 1.5C-4.5C AR5 range, while the 27 models (in blue) remain within it.
CMIP6: new scenarios, and a new generation of climate models. Great overview by
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained |
CMIP6 - new scenarios and a new generation of climate models that will be assessed in the Working Group I #AR6 report. Great overview by and
In a recent article, had compared 31 CMIP6 ECS values to the #IPCC AR5 likely ECS range and to CMIP5 ECS values. He also explained some of the major differences between #CMIP5 and #CMIP6. #ClimateChange
People don't always realize quite how much higher CO2 concentrations are in SSP5-8.5 than RCP8.5, largely because of changes in non-CO2 GHG assumptions:
The average climate sensitivity of CMIP6 models is higher so far — 3.8C compared to 3.2C in CMIP5. As more models have come in, however, the average sensitivity of CMIP6 models has fallen. 4/11
For whats its worth, the weirdness in RCP6 is largely fixed in its SSP4-6.0 successor. SSP2-4.5 and SSP4-6.0 now have a more differentiated forcing series through the 21st century:
During the period in which we were analyzing CMIP6 data, 12 additional models submitted runs needed for climate sensitivity calculations. We've updated our CMIP6 explainer to include the latest results:
The latest generation of climate models are somewhat warmer... * RCP2.6 was ~1.7°C in 2100 (66% below 2°C), but SSP1-2.6 is ~2.1°C. * RCP8.5 was ~4.6°C in 2100, but SSP5-8.5 is up to 5.5°C * The middle scenarios are ~0.5°C warming in 2100 1/ #COP25
For more on CMIP6 results so far, see our recent explainer
Sticking with science explainers, took on the hefty task of walking us through the new generation of climate models known as CMIP6 (which will be a foundation of the next IPCC assessment report in 2021)
In a packed room for the #AGU19 climate sensitivity session (Rm 3004, Moscone West). Essential reading on the topic include these pieces by for : ECS explainer: Early CMIP6 results:
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained
Have you questions about the latest modelling intercomparison? #CMIP6
This is how the latest two generations of climate models predicted global temperature would rise given the actual CO2 rise. Very useful graph in latest article by
The newest climate simulations (right-hand columns) suggests (i) greater uncertainty, & (ii) greater warming, than earlier simulations (left-hand columns). See
source for the awesome graphic about HOW VERY GOOD the GISS model is (at least with ECS)
CMIP6: the next generation of climate models explained
If you want to learn more we have a detailed explainer on CMIP6
As usual, has an excellent explainer by on CMIP6 models runs, incl. the issue of climate sensitivity
A quarter of the new #CMIP6 models (key contribution to next #IPCC report) have a climate sensitivity (ECS) higher than any of the older #CMIP5 models - summary of results so far put together by :