. Updated model has Sanders in favorite of winning all 49+ primaries
538 has Sanders forecasted to win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and California.
Our model has been updated, although one needs to treat it with a lot of caution since it's making guesses about the reaction to NH that may or may not resemble reality. The main takeaway is that the chances of "no majority" are up to 1 in 3.
Iowa caucus winning chances: Sanders: 2 in 5 (41%) Biden: 1 in 3 (32%) Buttigieg: 1 in 7 (14%) Warren: 1 in 10 (10%) Klobuchar: 1 in 40 (2%)
It's a big day! Our primary forecast is up and I'm super impressed (I had nothing to do with it, so unbiased, ya know?) Tons of people on the site did, though, and made it both beautiful and wonky-accessible! 📈🌼
#Updated Pledged Delegates Estimate (1990 needed to win the nomination) Biden 1557 Sanders 1225 Warren 532 Buttigieg 486
No huge changes, but a bit to my surprise our model didn't actually love that Quinnipiac poll for Sanders with the race looking so messy. "No majority" chances up and Bloomberg (whom our model hated) starting to get a tiny bit of a pulse.
Joe Biden is currently favored to win most delegates in the Democratic primary, but the race is wide open, a real-time forecast shows. "Do I buy that Biden is a favorite? Well, not quite," says.
No huge shifts, but Sanders down a tiny bit and Biden/Bloomberg/no majority up a tiny bit on that poll. The model thinks NV should be a real strong state for Sanders so a poll showing him up 25-18 is decent but not spectacular relative to its expectations.
New 538 model of the Dem primary outcome: Biden 42% Sanders 22% No majority 13% Warren 12% Biden chances increasing, Warren/Pete falling, Sanders stable How model works:
13 fabulous people on one byline. You love to see it. The 2020 primary forecast is posted!
And I think the presentation is solid. There's no talk of who will "win" - they are quite careful to avoid that in the discussions and the visuals. In fact, I wouldn't even really call it a forecast so much as "simulations of what might happen."
Sigh. If it’s Bernie then it’s Trump.
The model agrees with me that Bernie currently has a 50 percent shot, so it must be right.
OUR PRIMARY MODEL IS LIVE!
Our model is updated, using probabilistic forecasts of Iowa.
And, here's our model updated after the DMR poll. Majority chances: Biden 37% (-4%) Sanders 24% (+2%) NO MAJORITY 14% (—) Warren 13% (+2%) Buttigieg 10% (—)
Sanders gaining in our forecast; Biden fairly steady. Chance of "no majority" also increasing slightly.
There's a new face in our forecast in a *beautiful* gold color.
Also tightens the overall nomination odds with Biden: Biden 37% Sanders 27% No majority 17% Warren 11% Buttigieg 9%
Not surprisingly, those Iowa polls are producing a bit of an uptick for Biden in our overall forecast. He's now up to a 44% delegate majority chance, followed by Sanders at 19%, Warren at 13% and Buttigieg at 8%
After winning the popular vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire, is now expected to win 46 of the remaining 48 states. Bernie is now the most likely Democratic Party nominee for president.
Iowa winning odds per our model: Sanders 2-1 Biden 2-1 Buttigieg 6-1 Warren 9-1 Klobuchar 40-1
The reality was that Iowa was a 4- or perhaps even 5-way jumble, with Sanders narrowly at the top but Biden and Buttigieg ahead in some polls. He was the *most likely* winner but a slight underdog relative to the field. 2/x
Quite a bit of new data today, including new IA and NH polls, and here's how the numbers have changed since Friday: Majority chances: Biden 39% (+2%) Sanders 22% (-2%) NO MAJORITY 16% (+2%) Warren 13% (—) Buttigieg 9% (-1%)
🚨 Bloomberg is on the board now in the 538 model, with a 3% chance of winning a plurality of pledged delegates.
538 model now sees Sanders as most likely nominee (37%), with a 27% chance of no majority (but a lot of uncertainty; every cycle is different & we don’t have many): Explanation:
Another pretty good day for Sanders in our forecast. Coming at the expense of Warren & Buttigieg, not really Biden.
Somewhat boring aside: Please remember to check the timestamp on our model. It generally takes ~40-60 minutes from the time a new poll comes out until it's incorporated into our model. Longer if data from the poll is missing or no one's around to enter it.
Latest prediction has Sanders & Biden swapping odds and "no one" takes a strong 2nd place.
This primary has sung really hard in the last fortnight. Warren's numbers falling off a cliff, to Bernie's benefit.
update: as of Thursday morning, with 97% of Iowa reporting, the chances of Bernie getting a majority of Democratic delegates is now up to 49%.
I was wrong about being wrong about Buttigieg. By now he did make a jump up in NH. Bernie is more likely than not to also win Iowa in terms of State Delegate Equivalence, not only the popular vote. He now also has great NH polling & is most likely to win:
Welp. This is not great.
A 1 in 4 chance of not having a candidate by the Dem convention. That’s not good