We just 2 polls in from *every* Super Tuesday state from a) and b) . The polls are quite good for Biden. Our model has Biden moving ahead of Sanders.
Average projected delegates through Super Tuesday: Sanders 608 (41% of delegates thru March 3) Bloomberg 273 (18%) Biden 270 (18%) Buttigieg 157 (10%) Warren 127 (8%) Klobuchar 55 (4%)
. Updated model has Sanders in favorite of winning all 49+ primaries
538 has Sanders forecasted to win Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and California.
With a couple of strong polls last night and this morning, Sanders has re-overtaken "no majority" as the Democratic frontrunner.
Our model has been updated, although one needs to treat it with a lot of caution since it's making guesses about the reaction to NH that may or may not resemble reality. The main takeaway is that the chances of "no majority" are up to 1 in 3.
Iowa caucus winning chances: Sanders: 2 in 5 (41%) Biden: 1 in 3 (32%) Buttigieg: 1 in 7 (14%) Warren: 1 in 10 (10%) Klobuchar: 1 in 40 (2%)
Just turned the model back on with NV results + new polls. Good for Bernie, obviously! Neutral (but leaning toward slightly positive) for Biden. Bad for Bloomberg, whose odds have fallen quite a bit.
Our model is back on, but it was already pricing in a big South Carolina win for Biden so it isn't much changed. * "No majority" chances now up to 60%. * Plurality chances are Sanders 64%, Biden 32%, others 4%
It's a big day! Our primary forecast is up and I'm super impressed (I had nothing to do with it, so unbiased, ya know?) Tons of people on the site did, though, and made it both beautiful and wonky-accessible! 📈🌼
Bernie Sanders is dropping out of the race for president.
#Updated Pledged Delegates Estimate (1990 needed to win the nomination) Biden 1557 Sanders 1225 Warren 532 Buttigieg 486
No huge changes, but a bit to my surprise our model didn't actually love that Quinnipiac poll for Sanders with the race looking so messy. "No majority" chances up and Bloomberg (whom our model hated) starting to get a tiny bit of a pulse.
Buttigieg is dropping out of the race for president.
The forecast now gives a higher chance than of winning the most Democratic primary delegates. 👉🏻
Joe Biden is currently favored to win most delegates in the Democratic primary, but the race is wide open, a real-time forecast shows. "Do I buy that Biden is a favorite? Well, not quite," says.
No huge shifts, but Sanders down a tiny bit and Biden/Bloomberg/no majority up a tiny bit on that poll. The model thinks NV should be a real strong state for Sanders so a poll showing him up 25-18 is decent but not spectacular relative to its expectations.
New 538 model of the Dem primary outcome: Biden 42% Sanders 22% No majority 13% Warren 12% Biden chances increasing, Warren/Pete falling, Sanders stable How model works:
What a turnaround. Overnight poll releases have made Biden the most likely plurality & majority delegate winner (though with a remaining high chance of no majority, 62%): Including a surprising close MA, expected to be 29 Bernie, 25 Warren, 24 Biden
13 fabulous people on one byline. You love to see it. The 2020 primary forecast is posted!
And I think the presentation is solid. There's no talk of who will "win" - they are quite careful to avoid that in the discussions and the visuals. In fact, I wouldn't even really call it a forecast so much as "simulations of what might happen."
Sigh. If it’s Bernie then it’s Trump.
The model agrees with me that Bernie currently has a 50 percent shot, so it must be right.
The realistic options are Sanders or a contested convention. All other options combined have a 12% chance. After Super Tuesday, most of this 12% will also be gone. The electorate does not want chaos likely leading to Trump's election & will chose Sanders.
After Biden's SC win & Buttigieg dropping out predicts "no one" will win a majority in 64% of the cases. I think it is < 10%. It is a Sanders-Biden race; small candidates will suffer. Bloomberg was hot air & gets less than < 200 delegates.
OUR PRIMARY MODEL IS LIVE!
Our model is updated, using probabilistic forecasts of Iowa.
And, here's our model updated after the DMR poll. Majority chances: Biden 37% (-4%) Sanders 24% (+2%) NO MAJORITY 14% (—) Warren 13% (+2%) Buttigieg 10% (—)
Welp this is annoying, but we found an issue with how our model was making state-by-state forecasts. The error is fixed. The topline effect is not very large and mainly helps "no majority" slightly. A few state forecasts have changed more noticeably. 1/
Sanders gaining in our forecast; Biden fairly steady. Chance of "no majority" also increasing slightly.
Biden up to a 41% chance of a *plurality* of delegates vs. 57% for Sanders.
There's a new face in our forecast in a *beautiful* gold color.
Also tightens the overall nomination odds with Biden: Biden 37% Sanders 27% No majority 17% Warren 11% Buttigieg 9%
OK, so our forecast has been updated with Buttigieg dropping out. The major effect is to help "no majority" at the expense of Sanders for the reason I explained above. ^^
Not surprisingly, those Iowa polls are producing a bit of an uptick for Biden in our overall forecast. He's now up to a 44% delegate majority chance, followed by Sanders at 19%, Warren at 13% and Buttigieg at 8%
The model is back on, but since it was already very confident in Biden you won't notice much difference.
After winning the popular vote in both Iowa and New Hampshire, is now expected to win 46 of the remaining 48 states. Bernie is now the most likely Democratic Party nominee for president.
Iowa winning odds per our model: Sanders 2-1 Biden 2-1 Buttigieg 6-1 Warren 9-1 Klobuchar 40-1
Forecast updated with Kloubchar's exit, new national polls, endorsements (though endorsements have a pretty marginal influence on the model).
The reality was that Iowa was a 4- or perhaps even 5-way jumble, with Sanders narrowly at the top but Biden and Buttigieg ahead in some polls. He was the *most likely* winner but a slight underdog relative to the field. 2/x
For further context, the last forecast we ran *before* Nevada had majority chances as No Majority 41, Sanders 40, Bloomberg 9, Biden 8.
Biden now >99% to win delegate majority, Sanders down to 1/1000. Biden expected to win ~all remaining primaries. Huge shift over 2 weeks:
Quite a bit of new data today, including new IA and NH polls, and here's how the numbers have changed since Friday: Majority chances: Biden 39% (+2%) Sanders 22% (-2%) NO MAJORITY 16% (+2%) Warren 13% (—) Buttigieg 9% (-1%)
Here's the delegate projector of Biden nearly tying Sanders after March 17 (FLORIDA). And this model is *before* the decisive Biden victory tonight.
🚨 Bloomberg is on the board now in the 538 model, with a 3% chance of winning a plurality of pledged delegates.
538 model now sees Sanders as most likely nominee (37%), with a 27% chance of no majority (but a lot of uncertainty; every cycle is different & we don’t have many): Explanation:
Somewhat boring aside: Please remember to check the timestamp on our model. It generally takes ~40-60 minutes from the time a new poll comes out until it's incorporated into our model. Longer if data from the poll is missing or no one's around to enter it.
Another pretty good day for Sanders in our forecast. Coming at the expense of Warren & Buttigieg, not really Biden.
An amazing (and unexplained) reversal: within 24 hours Bernie and Biden essentially switch places in which one has over 60% chances of winning a plurality of delegates.
I know it's wrong to follow every twist and turn of the polling data, but Sanders' support seems to be plummeting. If so, that's very good news.
I had expected the chance of a contested convention to go up, but surprisingly predicts that after South Carolina the chance of Joe Biden winning WENT DOWN! Would love a more detailed analysis. Great to see chances of Booberg destroyed.
Welp. This is not great.
I was wrong about being wrong about Buttigieg. By now he did make a jump up in NH. Bernie is more likely than not to also win Iowa in terms of State Delegate Equivalence, not only the popular vote. He now also has great NH polling & is most likely to win:
update: as of Thursday morning, with 97% of Iowa reporting, the chances of Bernie getting a majority of Democratic delegates is now up to 49%.
Latest prediction has Sanders & Biden swapping odds and "no one" takes a strong 2nd place.
A 1 in 4 chance of not having a candidate by the Dem convention. That’s not good
I hadn’t looked at these numbers in a few days and was stunned to see they is the prohibitive favorite. Thought still had a shot, but says no way.
538 saying that Sanders now has a 1/1000 chance of winning the primary.
This primary has sung really hard in the last fortnight. Warren's numbers falling off a cliff, to Bernie's benefit.
Most likely total delegate counts after Super Tuesday, per modeling as of Monday morning: Bernie: 580 Biden: 473 Bloomberg: 216 Warren: 167
Not yet but he’s by far the most likely one