UPDATE: #Coronavirus ➡more intensive interventions now needed in UK to slow down #COVID19 spread, reduce pressure on healthcare & protect those most at risk ➡️careful monitoring required when interventions relaxed 🔰Full report:
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️93% take measures to protect themselves from COVID19 ➡️71% change behaviour in response to government guidance ➡️44% able to work from home, only 19% of manual and lower grade workers 🔰Full report:
UPDATE: #Coronavirus Global Burden ➡️38.7 million deaths can be prevented when acting early ➡️#COVID19 pandemic likely to overwhelm already over-stretched health systems ➡️Rapid adoption of testing, case isolation & social distancing necessary 🔰Report
UPDATE: Transmissibility estimates of #coronavirus #2019nCoV at 2.6 Identification & testing potential cases to be as extensive as permitted by healthcare & testing capacity 🔰
Size of Wuhan outbreak of a novel #coronavirus estimated from the three cases detected outside China: Likely to be over 1000 cases. report released today 🔰
UPDATE: #COVID19 sensitivity of international surveillance ➡️Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected. 🔰Read the full report:
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 China exiting #SocialDistancing ➡️Correlation between transmissibility & within-city movement (economic activity proxy) ➡️China’s initial exit from stringent social distancing measures has been successful 🔰Report
UPDATE: #COVID19 #CoronaVirus ➡️Repatriation flights from Wuhan provide estimates of prevalence at peak of outbreak (31 January-1 February). ➡️Infection prevalence estimated 0.87% 🔰Read full report here:
UPDATE: #COVID19 Phylogenetics ➡️Genetic diversity of COVID-19 is consistent with exponential growth, doubling time seven days ➡️Start epidemic estimated early December 2019 Read the full report: 🔰
UPDATE: #coronavirus #2019nCoV Severity ➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% ➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% ➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% 🔰
Imperial's latest report on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (social distancing etc) to reduce #COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand makes for sobering reading. Abstract extract below but important to read the whole report:
And these are just the things we know. We can only guess what we don’t know. This MRC analysis suggests that 2/3 of all #COVID19 cases exported from China have been missed
Yesterday released #paper12 which modelled #covid-19 in 202 countries. I’m an economist, not an epidemiologist, but here are a few of my takeaways on the impact in low-income settings; and some of their excellent charts (1/12)
UPDATE: #CoronaVirus Global Burden ➡️38.7 million deaths can be prevented when acting early ➡️#COVID19 pandemic likely to overwhelm already over-stretched health systems ➡️Rapid adoption of testing, case isolation & social distancing necessary 🔰Report
The new report on predicting US #COVID19 outcomes w/ mitigation strategies —Deaths 427,227 —Total Hospitalizations 2,605,123; peak 997,609 —Total ICU 627,962; peak 213,248 you can look at the variable effects of RO, social distance, etc
Acc. to this is 1 of several works describing what #UKGov consider when planning their #Covid19 stratergy. Most importantly it actually talks about #modelling possible scenarios. 1/n
UPDATE: #COVID19 #Coronavirus ➡️Clinical progression varies between cases but the most common presentations are fever and cough followed by fatigue and then, in some cases, pneumonia. 🔰Read full report here:
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️93% take measures to protect themselves from COVID19 ➡️71% change behaviour in response to government guidance ➡️44% able to work from home, only 19% of manual and lower grade workers 🔰Full report:
UPDATE: Report estimates 4000 cases #coronavirus #2019nCoV Our estimate at 4,000 cases is more than double the past estimate due to increase of number of cases outside China. This should not be interpreted as implying the outbreak has doubled in size. 🔰
Neil Ferguson's group at has updated their model estimating how many cases of #nCoV2019 there are in #Wuhan. Now estimates 4,000 — up from 1723 last week. Frankly, I feared worse.
With respect, this is insane. Mitigation strategies through social distancing / lockdowns are a non starter in nearly all low income/fragile settings. And why are the wider social and economic costs of suppression not worthy of consideration?
In latest analysis of #2019nCoV #coronavirus from , case fatality ratio estimated at 18% in #Wuhan, 1.2-5.6% outside China, 1% if you include all infections (i.e. asymptomatic). Flu is 0.1%.
Colleagues at estimate that sensitivity to detect a travel export from Wuhan was only about 1 in 4 internationally, mainly due to spectrum of disease severity (report 6 ). 6/13
Interesting report from Neil Ferguson's group at suggesting the Wuhan novel #coronavirus has caused a much higher number of cases (1,700+), based on air travel data out of Wuhan and the number of travelers identified as infected.
Here is one of the latest analyses of the new coronavirus, with an estimated R0 of 2.6 Remember, though: R0 is just one factor. It's still early, data are still coming in, and all the statistics are likely to keep changing
UPDATE: #coronavirus #2019nCoV Severity ➡️Estimated fatality ratio for infections 1% ➡️Estimated CFR for travellers outside mainland China (mix severe & milder cases) 1%-5% ➡️Estimated CFR for detected cases in Hubei (severe cases) 18% 🔰
New data, new policy: why UK's #COVID19 strategy changed. The latest measures are based on modelling by Prof and team at & . ➡️ Read the report:
UPDATE: #COVID19 #CoronaVirus ➡️Repatriation flights from Wuhan provide estimates of prevalence at peak of outbreak (31 January-1 February). ➡️Infection prevalence estimated 0.87% 🔰Read full report here:
compiled info on international confirmed #coronavirus cases website
Serious question, Professor. The very best case scenario in the latest Imperial report seems to show around 21,000 deaths. Are we missing something in the report? Or is there one that hasn’t been released yet?
Estimating the potential total number of novel coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China
Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus cases in Wuhan City, China #coronavirus
COVID-19 reports | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London Underlying analysis and modelling for UK government response, for all those demanding it
#COVID19 Results of epidemiological modelling of Mitigation vs Suppression approaches.
MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College have used the 3 exported cases to estimate the total number of 2019-nCoV cases in Wuhan City. Spoiler alert: the number is 1,723 (95% CI: 427 – 4,471)
Our researchers have published an updated report estimating that there are now 4,000 cases of #coronavirus 2019nCoV
Imperial new detailed analysis and report concludes: "act early to avoid most deaths". Welcome conclusion - possibly a month too late to benefit UK.
The report below presents the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policymaking in the UK and other countries in recent weeks. 2/n
9th KCL analysis posted last night
This approach was used for the nCov outbreak: . Similar methods were used during the 2009 H1N1 epidemic. For the algebra behind it:
See new policy report released today from Imperial: Updated COVID-19 case/death numbers by country in appendix:
Finally, all credit to and the team with for their work, and for making the country-by-country results available in the appendix Comments or corrections to this thread v welcome! (12/12)
A patient in China reportedly tested positive 10 days after discharged from hospital (and meeting discharge requirements) - Hundreds of cases in Chinese prisons- MRC analysis: 2/3 of COVID cases exported from China have been undetected
A couple simple ways to think about this estimate. On one hand, we believe that Wuhan had roughly 100k infections on Feb 1 (via report 7 ). 2/5
Key to control is identifying, testing, isolating suspected cases with mild to moderate disease. Requires a cheap, easy point of care diagnostic. Without therapeutics, controlling a US outbreak will hinge on very broad testing of any suspected cases.
Now I’ve read UCL’s report in full, it’s devastating. Mitigation will overwhelm the system, and even if we had enough beds, would result in millions of deaths. All we have is quarantine, until we have a vaccine - 18 months hence.
2/3rds of caronavirus cases exported from china likely undetected. Which would mean the dark genie is out of the bottle.
First, new introductions from Europe. One important data point is the report that on Feb 1 flights from Wuhan had about 1% prevalence (). This was when there were 14k total cases reported. 3/14
Meanwhile Pankaj Mishra's piece portends great economic, social, political upheaval. 3/
The UK govt is now going much harder on mitigation but I still suspect we should escalate to full suppression. Based on new evidence the top CD modeling group at ICL just threw its weight behind suppression (aka the Rob Wiblin Plan to Save Great Britain)
COVID-19 reports | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London For those interested in strategies to fight COVID-19, and how each impact how many people infected and dead.
OK so they're still talking about flattening the curve, but that's the first step towards reversing the curve. The goal should move on to full suppression for reasons outlined by the UK's experts here
Finally read the Imperial College report that flipped US/UK's policy. It's surprisingly readable: What are some critiques of the IC report *from other epidemiologists/public health experts*? (NOT "just" scientists or statisticians in general)
"However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in 100,000s of deaths and health systems (most notably ICUs) being overwhelmed many times over. For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option."
Here's the proper modelling that likely fed into this decision
latest model from UK suggest suppression not mitigation best chance against #SARSCoV2 #COVID19
Imperial college report released today: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand. Best simulation modeling report I have seen.
RT : UPDATE: #COVID19 sensitivity of international surveillance ➡️Two thirds of cases exported from mainland China are undetected. 🔰Read the full report:
COVID-19 reports | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London The report by the COVID-19 advisory team at Imperial.
“About two thirds of COVID-19 cases exported from mainland China have remained undetected worldwide.” COVID-19 | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London
From : "We show that in the UK and US context, suppression will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members." 1/
The ⁦⁩ reports on #COVID19 are excellent. In the latest one (report 6) they suggest only a 1/3 of cases that left Wuhan before the city closed have been diagnosed.
The case fatality ratio estimated by The WHO and Imperial College London is added to the plot above for comparison ( Report 4)
Las estimaciones de letalidad entre casos sintomáticos, CFR por su nombre en inglés (Case Fatality Ratio), para tres estratos de infecciones por COVID-19 (anteriormente denominado 2019-nCoV) COVI19 | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London
Great summary of analysis that is informing shift of UK (and US?) #COVID19 policy from mitigation to suppression, by
. is a good source for latest scientific info on #WuhanCoronavirus. Don't believe news reports, other people's interpretations of an article, etc. Go look for yourself. We all need to be guided by science, not rumor, now.
Will people look back on this as one of the most impactful scientific papers ever? Influencing changed UK and US government behavior. > COVID-19 reports | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London
Jan 22, 2020: “We estimate that a total of 4,000 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City (uncertainty range: 1,000 – 9,700) had onset of symptoms by 18th January 2020” #nCoV2019 #Wuhan
. Imperial College London -- Report 2: Estimating the potential total number of novel #Coronavirus cases in #Wuhan City, China #nCoV2019
While the G20 fiddles, this Imperial College modelling exercise warns that delayed mitigation could cost over 1 millions lives in Africa and 8 million globally - COVID-19 reports | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London
Also I can't find this 5,700 number anywhere in a report or in the spreadsheets that go with the most recent one. There was at 5,600 scenario in the original one though.
.: Estimating the potential total number of novel #Coronavirus cases in #Wuhan City, China