The New York Times has managed to get their hands on the still-not-public CDC projections. One model estimates 160 to 214 million infected in the US, with 200,000 to 1.7 million dead. That’s middle range of the projections what I’m seeing.
CDC now modeling 200k to 1.7m US deaths from CV-19, and I'm the fearmonger.
Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and epidemic experts conferred last month about what might happen if the coronavirus gained a foothold in the United States. We reviewed the scenarios, which have not been released publicly.
THIS: "Between 160M & 214M people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic...That cld last months or even >year, w/infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
This fine article from covers some estimates properly formulated by weeks ago. If 20% of Americans get COVID19 in coming 6 months, and 0.5% die, that is 300,000 deaths. Alas, this is indeed quite possible. Or worse. 1/
In projections that were not publicly disclosed, C.D.C. modelers assessed the impact of coronavirus last month. One worst-case scenario suggested that, without interventions, as many as 1.7 million could die in the United States. by
Grim internal CDC modeling on infection and death rates even as the Trump adminstration bumbles catastrophically and sends Senate home for long weekend
The NY Times scored a document on the CDC’s worst-case scenario for COV-19. The newspaper very carefully, and responsibly IMO, did not put the numbers in the headline or lede. The numbers are in the story.
This pandemic is evolving quickly; there are several scenarios of how it may unfold. projections suggest between 160 and 214 million people in the US could become infected, and 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die. v
New reporting in the Times underscores why radical measures are essential to slow the spread. CDC calculations of worst-case scenarios: 2.4 to 21 million people in the U.S. could require hospitalization. The US has about 925,000 staffed hospital beds.
One of the CDC’s internal models for the coronavirus projected that as many as 200,000 to 1.7 million Americans could die.
.'s worst case: Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the next year. And as many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
Between 160 M and 214 M people in US could be infected over the course of the epidemic. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die. Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. #Coronavirus Deaths
Important story by that tells us the range of scenarios for how many people might die in US from covid-19 and to what degree hospitals will be overwhelmed. Details of meeting w/ CDC and experts. Distancing actions we take now are critical.
Every American should should read this, now
Time for EVERYONE to get serious and prevent excess deaths: STAY HOME AND AWAY FROM OTHERS! Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
I recommend reading the entire article and not go searching for topline numbers. Also, see the below paragraph. Social distancing now saves lives:
Times today reports CDC estimates of up to 1.7 million Americans killed.
"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
Noah’s right. I stand rebuked. It’s closer to the worst case than likely case. The Times frames the range as from 200K to 1.7M deaths. I don’t want anyone to think we can’t reduce the severity of impact. But it’ll take major cultural change to do so.
As in the case of an approaching hurricane, Dr. Mecher said, “You’ve got to take potentially very disruptive actions when the sun is shining and the breeze is mild”
Could last months or even over a year, with infections concentrated in shorter periods, staggered across time in different communities, experts said. ⚠️As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
Modelers lay out scenarios for the U.S. on #COVID19. A key lesson: early social distancing important. "As in the case of an approaching hurricane..You’ve got to take potentially very disruptive actions when the sun is shining and the breeze is mild.”
This Times piece estimates that a 75% reduction in contact could reduce Seattle-area deaths from 400 to 30 in the next month. Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Unless we successfully follow mitigation strategies, here's what could happen:
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway. via
NY Times from CDC estimates - US deaths - "As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die." "2.4 million to 21 million people in the United States could require hospitalization"
“Studies of previous epidemics have shown that the longer officials waited to encourage people to distance and protect themselves, the less useful those measures were in saving lives and preventing infections.”
“Studies of previous epidemics have shown that the longer officials waited to encourage people to distance and protect themselves, the less useful those measures were in saving lives and preventing infections.”
"Between 160 million and 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, according to one projection. [...] As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
"As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die." A range of 4 projected scenarios in the US over a year in a CDC model presented by Matthew Biggerstaff in February. It was stated in percentages, but absolute #s were in NYT on March 13. The CDC knew
Time for everyone to get serious about this - stay home and way from others! Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
based on the cdc's worst-case scenario. if the u.s. took no action whatsoever. "As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
Best or worst case scenario for #COVID19 in the US? An excellent interactive, modeling on key variables by and And 's worst case piece
Terrifying numbers, but these could decrease significantly with tweaks to the assumptions, social distancing, and implementing some new technologies ready now such as the measures we proposed yesterday
Imagine top experts announced an asteroid could strike the US & kill up to two million people within a year and a half That’s the official CDC projection for covid-19 Why aren’t we converting factories for a) more testing & b) ventilators?
if this report is correct and CDC was internally warning USG a month ago of hundreds of thousands dead, Trump's inaction on testing is FAR more damning than anything regarding Ukraine and Biden
The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Projections in the US on current course are very dependent on many uncertainties. But this article gives a picture of the range of possibilities. 16/x
The CDC projects that 160 million to 214 million people in the U.S. could be infected with #coronavirus and between 200,000 and 1.7 million could die. (for some reason there are not charts with this data-rich story) #covid19
Worst-case coronavirus scenario calculations offer more incentive to take action now.
CDC publishes worst-case #coronavirus projections: Between 160 and 214 million infected and 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths in the U.S., by via #COVID19 #pandemic
From March 2020. We’ve entered worst-case scenario territory.
Them: But Medicine in 1918 wasn't like today. If I get really sick, I'll get better. Me: says ~ 2 - 21 million Americans may need hospitalization, & Doctors from China & Seattle say 1/3rd hospitalized will need ICU/Ventilator. WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH
This NYT article shows potential COVID scenarios being considered by the USG. We do not have enough ventilators to address the more serious scenarios. 3/x
Not captured in the total is the message “Mitigation and containment” both can help - (but you have to actually do them) — Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
As our president was telling us to whistle past the coronavirus, a top CDC disease modeler was warning last month that more than two-thirds of Americans could end up infected, with more than a million of us dying. Hospitals could be utterly overwhelmed.
Remember mid-March—just two weeks after the US president called criticism of his inaction on the coronavirus a “hoax”. Few then could believe the models forecasting 200,000+ deaths. Here are the baseline forecasts by and now:
Excellent article reCOVID-19 modeling. via
CDC's worst-case scenario: more than half of the country gets coronavirus
Estimates are the US has 925,000 total staffed hospital beds. That’s a critical number to know and most were already filled before this pandemic. And that assumes no staff shortages due to illness or attrition. #COVID19 #hospitals #healthcare
The Worst-Case Estimate for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
This article on worst case outcomes has similar numbers, but makes the important point these assume no large-scale change in behavior. With social distancing, ubiquitous testing, and improved hygiene transmission could be substantially reduced.
People: Please avoid unnecessary travel & other exposures. CDC is projecting 2.4 to 21 million in the U.S. could require hospitalization, yet we have only 925,000 staffed hospital beds. ⁩ ⁦⁩ ⁦
NYT reports on some of the CDC and related models.
“Think starlight. That light isn’t from now, it’s from however long it took to get here.”
"160 [to] 214 million people in the United States could be infected over the course of the epidemic, … could last months or even over a year, … As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die."
“When people change their behavior... There is a lot of room for improvement if we act appropriately.” #FlattenTheCurve #COVID19 #coronavirus by via
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths - The New York Times ‘As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die’ !
#oncoalert Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths 160-214 million in the US could become infected over months or a year. As many as 200,000 to 1.7 million people could die.
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths - The New York Times
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Emphasis is "worst case." Government and public health actions happening NOW will reduce the illness and death toll and/or spread it out over a long time period.
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
"The C.D.C.-led effort is developing more sophisticated models showing how interventions might decrease the worst-case numbers, though their projections have not been made public."
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths
Okay, where do my numbers come from? Some estimates on saving lives: I used the compromise 600,000 from this paper: Here's on the statistical value of a life:
"Studies of previous epidemics have shown that the longer officials waited to encourage people to distance and protect themselves, the less useful those measures were in saving lives and preventing infections." #coronavirus #COVID19
Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths A sobering reminder of what might happen if we do not take drastic measures two weeks ago. H/t