Hey guys, so it turns out that according to an Oxford study, fewer than 1 in 1000 of those infected with Covid-19 become ill enough to need hospital treatment. Am I allowed to cite Oxford or only "plague of the century" model from Imperial College UK?
Interesting. Oxford modellers come up with different model than Imperial: half the UK population may be infected already, mostly asymptomatic. If so, it may mean a sudden surge in cases but a much shorter pandemic. We need tests of the immune response!
This is the most hopeful news you’ll read this evening: Oxford study suggests coronavirus might be far less deadly than thought
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study
If this Oxford study — “new epidemiological model shows vast majority of people suffer little or no illness” — is right, U.S. policymakers will have a lot of questions to answer. Our economy was shut down over what might have been rank speculation.
Oxford epidemiologist argues via study that half of all Britons may have already been infected by the coronavirus. Says her model shows that less than 1 in a thousand of those with disease require hospitalization.
Really irresponsible, tabloid-like, headline from - the Oxford study doesn't claim that half of the population might have been infected by coronavirus. They say there are many scenarios to explain the pattern of deaths that we observe. 1/5
This is remarkable, if true. And could be good news
The coronavirus may have already infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to researchers at the University of Oxford
‘Corona virus may have infected half of UK population- Oxford study’ If this is true then hopefully we’ll get through this much more quickly than originally thought Via
If this is true it changes everything
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study via
Test test test! Use real data! “We need immediately to begin large-scale serological surveys antibody testing to assess the stage of the epidemic we are in now...If findings are confirmed by testing, current restrictions could be removed much sooner..."
A headline in the Financial Times today: "Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study" Remember that media headlines don't lend themselves to nuanced interpretations. A few words of caution...
GOOD NEWS about the #coronavirus: Oxford & Stanford Epidemiologists concur that millions have already been affected by the #Coronavirus with little or no symptoms. They say we’ve ALREADY developed herd immunity, and the virus is in it’s later stage.
“The new coronavirus may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.”
Beware false hopes, but: Could it be that far more people have already had COVID-19 than thought, and that hospitalisation rates have been overestimated? If so, lockdown could be much shorter than previously predicted as "herd immunity" quickly achieved.
Crikey, this story by sheds a very different light (possibly) on the epidemiology. Encouraging if true, but I would imagine it would be dangerous to assume it is until serological tests prove things one way or the other.
No big deal, we may have destroyed the global economy for nothing... #COVID19
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study | Financial Times ⁦⁩ ⁦⁩ ⁦
Oxford model suggests half of UK already infected which is huge good news if true but wont know until we all get antibody test. Also doesn't really solve hospital overcrowding issues does it?
Interesting new analysis
The work mentioned here can potentially be the deadliest non-peer-reviewed research that makes it to mass media, in history. No explanation of how extreme close tracing of cases in the Wuhan outbreak does NOT match their model.
//The research presents a very different view of the epidemic to the modelling at Imperial College London, which has strongly influenced government policy.// #coronavirus
"But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months"
Surely the economic argt as well as personal is for much wider testing? A pool of immunes could keep the economy going. What am I missing?
Alternatively if they decide it's unclear whether that was true, we can call the bet off. I suggest we choose some random epidemiologist we respect to decide at their convenience after 1 Jan 2021. For those wondering here's the story
Urgently important that we remain alert to how little we know and open to learning what we do not. It may be that the assumptions about infection/death rates are both completely wrong. Caution wrt an unknown threat must not slow or bias inquiry.
Starting in January COVID-19 may already have infected far more people in the UK than scientists had previously estimated — perhaps as much as half the population — according to modelling by researchers at the University of Oxford.
"But the Oxford results would mean the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months."
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population.
#Coronavirus may have infected half of #UK population starting mid-January — Oxford study
Coronavirus may have infected half of UK population — Oxford study via
This is pretty interesting Especially in combination with
A ray of hope from the “home of lost causes”.
Is the number of uninfected even greater than anyone suspected?
Perhaps one in a thousand people infected with the Coronavirus require hospitalization.
Is this true? If so, it would actually be amazing news
This - Oxford academic thinks half of us may already have it. Good news if true