Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from via
Two Stanford doctors argue in today that true mortality rate for coronavirus could be one-tenth of the flu. (That is the flu is ten times more deadly). Say there are likely millions of cases — and recoveries — already in US. Read this
A critical question, since the current official U.S. death rate of about 1.4% is almost certainly higher than the actual rate. That’s because the infection number it’s based on inevitably leaves out the large number of cases where there are no symptoms.
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from via
Two medical professors at Stanford: risk of dying from Coronavirus may not be as high as we’ve been told bc we are underestimating the true # of ppl who have the virus.
Dr. Eran Bendavid & Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, professors of medicine at Standford, ask if "the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%." Are we allowed to even share this info or only the "plague of the century" stuff out of Imperial College UK?
Two things, as I am fond of saying, can be true at once: (1) evidence is emerging that the true death rate of coronavirus is far lower than current estimates, based on lack of information about the number infected thanks to lack of testing
Not sure I understand how the coronavirus mortality rate can be 0.01% or nearby. Nearly 7,000 deaths in Italy, a country of around 60 million. So it's more than 0.01% even if you assume everyone in the country has already died or recovered from it.
BOOOM! Two professors are writing in the WSJ what I have been tweeting for 3 weeks. Read away
More doubts about the PanicDemic :Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say? - WSJ
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from
"Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.”
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from
Remembering that *very responsible* oped () arguing against lockdowns because only 0.01% of those who got the virus would die. We now know that 0.23% of all New Yorkers have died from it. (That’s a share of all NYers, not just those with the virus.)
Is the coronavirus as deadly as they say? Intriguing article by a couple of Stanford professors. "The true fatality rate is the portion of those *infected* who die, not the deaths from *identified* positive cases." Makes sense. I hope they're correct.
Two Stanford professors of medicine, Dr. Bendavid & Dr. Bhattacharya explain why they believe the coronavirus stats are deeply flawed.
My colleagues Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya argue that the mortality risk from coronavirus infection has been significantly overestimated
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from via
The core "analysis" of this article is to extrapolate from the CV-19 infection rates of Western expat evacuees to ALL of Wuhan, then reject the official Chinese case numbers but accept the official Chinese death numbers. It's just idiotic.
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Covid-19 may be 1/10 or 1/100th as deathly as we initially thought
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from via
Name me one seasonal flu that has overwhelmed local hospitals to the degree that doctors have to leave patients to die due to lack of ventilators. But yes, we need large scale serological testing in order to better estimate infection fatality rate.
Could it be that the denominator (number of real COVID-19 cases) is an order of magnitude (10x) higher than thought (people don't know they have it, think they have the flu, can't get tested...) so death rate is 10x lower? Isolation good but don't panic.
another golden voice of reason (two voices actually) and like last week's, coming from Stanford, an impeccable source via
this is why we’re doing serological testing...
The WSJ opinion piece by two Stanford profs suggests that the #COVID19 case fatality rate could be very low (0.1% to 0.01%) -- as low as having a cold. Both models that I built agree with that possibility. How is that possible? An explanation thread 1/n
got BBQed on twitter for saying the numbers don’t seem to add up — looks like the back channel questioning the 2-8% death rates coming into light: estimates of the fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, Bendavid & Bhattacharya
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from skeptical. but gavin newsome commissioned some random sampling of California. results public?
Some sanity on the Chinese flu from the . Fatality rate will be much lower than WHO estimates, and probably significantly lower than the fatality rate of the flu.
at least the latest from "Stanford School of Coronavirus Isn't That Bad" is from MDs who study and model infectious diseases - we all hope they're right that 100x more people were infected w/CV than we thought, but their evidence is pretty weak
Interesting essay in on how to calculate the “denominator” when looking at CFR with #COVID19 #COVID2019 pandemic. I know & were very interested in this.
The answer is we still don't know, say two professors . We need widespread serological testing to find out, and soon. via
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from via
thought coronavirus articles weren't behind your paywall, . Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from
“If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.”
...it is clear that the facts that these scientists constructed benefited a political stance that values gross domestic product over human life (9/)
But there are other new estimates from infectious disease experts that put it at closer to 0.01%, an order of magnitude below that of influenza. (Presumably with new data suggesting a higher transmission rate.)
Current estimates of the coronavirus fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude, write Profs. Eran Bendavid and Jay Bhattacharya from
The parallels to climate keep coming. We are learning as we go. Early action preserves option value. Act, test, study.
What if the true number of affected individuals in the US wasn’t 50,000 but 500,000 or even 5,000,000? Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as We Think?
Depends what you mean by "seriously." I seriously think that there's a #coronavirus outbreak, but I seriously disagree with nuking our economies based on the severity of the infections or the numbers/nature of the deaths to date.