The most important economics paper released so far today: "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu"
Here's a paper that deserves more downloads, on the 1918 flu. Findings in short: Cities that intervene more aggressively grow faster afterwards. More early/aggressive interventions lower mortality *and* reduce negative economic consequences.
KEY: It turns out that lockdowns don’t hurt the economy. Pandemics do. In 1918, those areas with lockdowns boomed after the pandemic.
Alternatively phrased: If you think shutdowns hurt the economy, you should see what pandemics do. Without faith that you aren't going to die when you interact with others, you don't have an economy. Here's the paper
Pandemics Depress the Economy; Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu HT "[C]ities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over." 👍
should COVID-19 mobility restrictions be removed to help economy? new research by on 1918 suggests answer is no. "cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic"
"Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu" X- axis: Total days of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions in fall 1918 Y-axis Growth in manufacturing employment 1914-19
A crucial paper came last Thursday on the #coronavirus. Its takeaway: Social distancing both reduces mortality AND increases the economy. Ground-breaking! Not peered-reviewed yet, so I'll be on the lookout for that.
2/AS my colleague reports, new research on the history of the Spanish Flu -- our last really big pandemic, a century ago -- shows that shutdowns RAISE long-term economic growth in the face of a pandemic.
Paper OF THE DAY: #Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: in 1918 Flu cities that intervened earlier grow faster after the pandemic is over. Intervention lowers mortality + mitigates the adverse economic consequences
Correia, Luck, & Verner studied 1918 Spanish flu. Found that "cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively" through public gathering bans, isolation and quarantine, etc. did better economically after the pandemic than cities that didn't /6
Useful working paper on the economic impacts of pandemics and social distancing. Suggests that conditional on a pandemic occurring, social distancing increases rather than decreases economic output a year after the pandemic.
An economics paper looking at the 1918 flu finds that the cities that shut down sooner and has a lower incidence of the flu subsequently had much *higher* growth rate after the pandemic. It’s not the shutdown that kills you, it turns out!
Acabou de sair um estudo de economistas do Fed e MIT sobre a pandemia de 1918. Cidades que agiram + cedo e com + força tiveram desempenho econômico similar durante a pandemia e melhor depois. Quarentenas reduziram mortalidade e *BENEFICIARAM A ECONOMIA*.
Interesting new research paper by three economists finds that in 1918 flu epidemic, it was not public health measures that hurt the economy, but the failure to impose them and the boost that gave to disease
#PandemicDeniers like , , & others have been insisting that sending workers back to work in a pandemic may be best for the economy. A new Federal Reserve study just destroyed that absurd anti-science argument.
Fascinating (and important!) conversation w/ on ’s show: “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not” Outstanding research, and very clearly communicated by Emil. Full paper here:
Timely and important: , and on econ. consequences of public health interventions during 1918 flu using geographic variation across US. Distancing etc. associated with lower mortality and *higher* med-run economic activity
Don’t think a paper can get more timely than this 👇🏻 “We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over” Source:
Interesting results from this analysis of the 1918-19 Flu pandemic: "We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over."
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Shelter-in-place not only saves lives, it improves the economy over returning to work too early. Study of Spanish flu of 1918 shows the cities that were most aggressive on quarantine, and quarantined longer, had the most economic growth post-pandemic!
"cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively...if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over. Our findings thus indicate that NPIs not only lower mortality; they may also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic"
suggestive only but speed and aggressiveness of response to 1918 Spanish flu pandemic in US may have led to better economic outcomes
Research finds countries that implement strong health measures earlier in the #COVID19 pandemic have better economic outcomes. This graph from 1918 H1N1 pandemic shows US cities that intervened sooner, longer, and decisively fared far better economically.
De acuerdo con la evidencia de la Flu de 1918 es la pandemia no la cuarentena. Mira este bonito estudio: “Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu”
Interesting historical economic research (pointed to by others) also suggests there's no evidence for "cure worse than disease" arguments about lockdowns. Coupled with mass death & lack of info on long-term immunity in scenario B, this is a no brainer.
Important new research: "We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over."
"cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over." Investors & entrepreneurs leaving SF should be at looking to Australia as a potential next home
In light of the recent paper on the 1918 flu (), which suggests there is no trade-off in the medium term between lives and the economy, it seems like this graphic from 's excellent , if extended, would look something like:
Prudent distancing measures not only reduce mortality *but also* increase economic growth going forward! We don't have to sacrifice our grandparents for the economy. Here is the actual study
1918 flu study: Cities that took more aggressive steps 2 curb the 1918 flu pandemic in the US emerged with stronger economies than cities that did less. Because if we lift too early the pandemic can take hold again & that itself is very bad for the economy
There is evidence that this was likely also the case more than a century ago in the influenza pandemic of 1918 And back then we did not have today's economy in which we so strongly rely on each other.
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Then there's the studies of different U.S. cities during the time of 1918 flu, which found cities that instituted social distancing policies earlier actually fared better economically on average after the pandemic than cities that instituted them later.
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the Great Influenza of 1918 via #COVID19
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
Anyone who still thinks "the cure is worse than the disease" should read this paragraph from the Correia et al paper on the 1918 pandemic. Cities that shut down earlier had fewer deaths AND recovered faster economically.
Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu
We saw this dynamic play out during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. An MIT study found that cities that shut down earlier & for longer suffered less deaths – & importantly, also made a faster economic recovery – than the cities that opened earlier. 3/11
Sergio Correia released a striking paper in March finding the states that did more/earlier to contain the Spanish flu both saved lives and had better economic outcomes.