Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one.

Megan Molteni
68d ago

The #Covid-19 pandemic has unleashed a deluge of data, statistics, and curves on the public. @jetjocko and I dove deep into how these models work, why they're useful despite their obvious limitations, and what happens when people misuse them.

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There are so many math models out there to predict outcomes for the pandemic, which are now being made to set policy. That's why this @WIRED explainer piece by @jetjocko and @MeganMolteni is especially worthwhile
wired.com/story/the-math… pic.twitter.com/Avh8A5BG9U

Here's a terrific explanation of how the mathematical models mapping Covid-19 work. But of course all models show variations, depending on assumptions. Which allows vile or venal politicians to attack the mathematicians.

'Epidemiologists are using complex models to help policymakers get ahead of the Covid-19 pandemic. But the leap from equations to decisions is a long one'

Those "wrong" #Covid19 models may ultimately be the reason global death tolls are in the thousands instead of the millions.
Here's how the mathematical oracles really work: wired.trib.al/MUOFeqP pic.twitter.com/pik2dzTecs

Anyone who's mad about #Covid19 models being "wrong" isn't fully grasping how they work. Without them, global death tolls may be in the millions instead of the thousands: wired.trib.al/zwOZ04W pic.twitter.com/gB1Hat1gFM

Watching the pandemic unfold in New York, Lisa Brandenburg head of hospitals and clinics @UWMedicine, said "That could be us." Great feature @Wired on how hospital executives are being guided by models by @IHME and others for making decisions.

In preparation for this evening:
@wired: wired.com/story/the-math…
AND
@FiveThirtyEight : fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-i…
#math #epidemiology #model