UPDATE: #Coronavirus Europe (11 countries)
➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March
➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic
➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/Int4MCwQjG
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19
➡️testing important to monitor epidemic
➡️weekly screening of high-risk groups reduces transmission by a third
➡️community testing unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing & symptom-based quarantine
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/zSY11FqaDA
UPDATE: #COVID19 #CoronaVirus in Italy:
➡️Reproduction number R <1
➡️No herd immunity reached
➡️20% return to pre-lockdown mobility may lead to resurgence in deaths
➡️Enhanced surveillance needed to reduce risk of resurgence
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/pnN4MdIEaY
UPDATE: #Coronavirus
➡️#COVID19 pandemic could disrupt bed net distributions & core health services
➡️malaria burden could more than double in 2020 as a result
➡️distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets essential to mitigate risk
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/o7A8eigYct
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in USA
➡️Initial national average reproduction number R was 2.2
➡️24 states have Rt over 1
➡️Increasing mobility cause resurgence (doubling number of deaths in 8 weeks)
➡️4.1% of people infected nationally
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/NmX6LUQ7bI
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 South Korea
➡ Epidemic characterised by large clusters of cases
➡ Shincheonji religious group accounted for 48% of cases
➡️High volume of testing & low number of deaths suggests small epidemic
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/Uefaj1YDtJ
UPDATE: #COVID19 impact on HIV, TB & Malaria
➡️Related deaths over 5 years could increase up to 10-36% in high burden settings
➡️Maintaining critical prevention & healthcare services significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 epidemic
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/1uHEDBrJpC
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19
➡53 countries studied, 3 sufficiently reduced mobility and R below 1
➡️Mobility trends explain over 80% of observed variations in transmission
➡️Reduction in mobility of 57.3-65.9% sufficient for UK to reduce R
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/dzMIRWXRls
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in Brazil:
➡️Percentage infected population 3.3% in São Paulo to 10.6% in Amazonas
➡️54% drop in reproduction number R following interventions
➡️R above 1, epidemic not yet under control
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/YoyCPfLAAg
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 mobility in UK
➡️UK compliant with social distancing interventions
➡️Substantial reduction in mobility across the UK after enforced lock-down
➡️Mobility remains low but consistently increases
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/tkYXQyrNoK
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19
➡️New hospital planning tool assesses capacity & impact of strategies to increase capacity
➡️Improves responsiveness of health systems to pandemic
➡️Publicly available, interactive and adaptable
🔰Full report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/xaB9s6yymG
UPDATE: #Coronavirus
➡️#COVID19 pandemic could disrupt bed net distributions & core health services
➡️malaria burden could more than double in 2020 as a result
➡️distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets essential to mitigate risk
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/s4T2AZRfym
UPDATE: #COVID19 in mainland China:
➡ Early implementation & timely adjustment of control measures important to contain transmission
➡ Data made publicly available as additional source for research & policy planning
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/sy2kgAgzPN
UPDATE: #COVID19 impact on HIV, TB & Malaria
➡️Related deaths over 5 years could increase up to 10-36% in high burden settings
➡️Maintaining critical prevention & healthcare services significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 epidemic
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/E2tuWqsSg0
UPDATE: #Coronavirus Europe (11 countries)
➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March
➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic
➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/WQ2kDuWFVq
UPDATE: #Coronavirus
➡️ London NHS trust hospitals with multi-ethnic catchment population
➡️ Outcomes of hospitalised #COVID19 patients
➡️ Description of association with age, sex, comorbidity & ethnicity
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/3feXeaPvim
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19
➡️Public can guide research priorities
➡️Need for social studies on experiences, risk perception & behaviour
➡️Ineffective communication, poor access to- & information overload lead to concern confusion & panic
🔰Full report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/4nDGzmMGFs
UPDATE: #Coronavirus
➡️ London NHS trust hospitals with multi-ethnic catchment population
➡️ Outcomes of hospitalised #COVID19 patients
➡️ Description of association with age, sex, comorbidity & ethnicity
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/Z52ZY3USb0
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19
➡53 countries studied, 3 sufficiently reduced mobility and R below 1
➡️Mobility trends explain over 80% of observed variations in transmission
➡️Reduction in mobility of 57.3-65.9% sufficient for UK to reduce R
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/j4E5U3LGZw
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19
➡️New hospital planning tool assesses capacity & impact of strategies to increase capacity
➡️Improves responsiveness of health systems to pandemic
➡️Publicly available, interactive and adaptable
🔰Full report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/w6aKkiLBgr
The @GOVUK who I have dissed elsewhere in this account, nevertheless changed their overall policy to be stronger after this group updated their model TWO WEEKS ago. That report included details of the expectations for the US (find it and others here) imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf… 7/n
UPDATE: #COVID19science
➡️To accommodate all elective patients, hospital provision interventions to remain in place until there are less than 320 critical care #COVID19 patients
➡️Shortfalls driven by lack of nurses, beds & junior doctors
🔰Report: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/HwUBPld4RY
UPDATE: #covid19science:
➡️23.6% of all deaths in England and 20.3% in Wales from #COVID19
➡️4.4% (95% CI 3.2% - 5.7%) of all deaths in England are excess non-COVID-19 related deaths
➡️No excess COVID-19 deaths in Wales
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/q5TH9izSvh
UPDATE: #COVID19 in mainland China:
➡ Early implementation & timely adjustment of control measures important to contain transmission
➡ Data made publicly available as additional source for research & policy planning
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/3tx3D9frKw
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in USA
➡️Initial national average reproduction number R was 2.2
➡️24 states have Rt over 1
➡️Increasing mobility cause resurgence (doubling number of deaths in 8 weeks)
➡️4.1% of people infected nationally
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/WUFJFUlT1w
Imperial Report 13: Estimating number of infections and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries
Grim number 13 reading but essential to understand how to respond to the outbreak
imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…
#COVID19
@BWDDPH@felly500
UPDATE: #COVID19science
➡️To accommodate all elective patients, hospital provision interventions to remain in place until there are less than 320 critical care #COVID19 patients
➡️Shortfalls driven by lack of nurses, beds & junior doctors
🔰Report: imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/jl6so2LAYV
@msantolini@FrancoisTaddei PS: Aside, best place so far for COVID19 studies is Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team and @neil_ferguson's reports.
Report 09: Forecast for UK and USA
Report 12: Global impact in numbers.
Report 13: Forecast for 11 European nations. cc:@DanielleFong
UPDATE: #covid19science:
➡️23.6% of all deaths in England and 20.3% in Wales from #COVID19
➡️4.4% (95% CI 3.2% - 5.7%) of all deaths in England are excess non-COVID-19 related deaths
➡️No excess COVID-19 deaths in Wales
🔰Report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/xCaOBIzxwk
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19
➡️Public can guide research priorities
➡️Need for social studies on experiences, risk perception & behaviour
➡️Ineffective communication, poor access to- & information overload lead to concern confusion & panic
🔰Full report imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/TJs7OHCKgP
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19
➡️testing important to monitor epidemic
➡️weekly screening of high-risk groups reduces transmission by a third
➡️community testing unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing & symptom-based quarantine
🔰imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-inf…pic.twitter.com/bLTfa0BrHB
"we est. across all 11 [EU] countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March" .. "we est. that [the non-pharmaceutical] interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March"