UPDATE: #Coronavirus Europe (11 countries) ➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March ➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic ➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives 🔰Report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️testing important to monitor epidemic ➡️weekly screening of high-risk groups reduces transmission by a third ➡️community testing unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing & symptom-based quarantine 🔰
UPDATE: #COVID19 #CoronaVirus in Italy: ➡️Reproduction number R <1 ➡️No herd immunity reached ➡️20% return to pre-lockdown mobility may lead to resurgence in deaths ➡️Enhanced surveillance needed to reduce risk of resurgence 🔰Report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus ➡️#COVID19 pandemic could disrupt bed net distributions & core health services ➡️malaria burden could more than double in 2020 as a result ➡️distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets essential to mitigate risk 🔰Report
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in USA ➡️Initial national average reproduction number R was 2.2 ➡️24 states have Rt over 1 ➡️Increasing mobility cause resurgence (doubling number of deaths in 8 weeks) ➡️4.1% of people infected nationally 🔰Report
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 South Korea ➡ Epidemic characterised by large clusters of cases ➡ Shincheonji religious group accounted for 48% of cases ➡️High volume of testing & low number of deaths suggests small epidemic 🔰Report
UPDATE: #COVID19 impact on HIV, TB & Malaria ➡️Related deaths over 5 years could increase up to 10-36% in high burden settings ➡️Maintaining critical prevention & healthcare services significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 epidemic 🔰Report
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 ➡53 countries studied, 3 sufficiently reduced mobility and R below 1 ➡️Mobility trends explain over 80% of observed variations in transmission ➡️Reduction in mobility of 57.3-65.9% sufficient for UK to reduce R 🔰Report
UPDATE: low- & middle-income countries ➡️Vulnerable & disadvantaged populations at greater risk from #COVID19 ➡️Associated factors: household age structure, food security, displaced populations & domestic violence 🔰Report
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in Brazil: ➡️Percentage infected population 3.3% in São Paulo to 10.6% in Amazonas ➡️54% drop in reproduction number R following interventions ➡️R above 1, epidemic not yet under control 🔰Report
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 mobility in UK ➡️UK compliant with social distancing interventions ➡️Substantial reduction in mobility across the UK after enforced lock-down ➡️Mobility remains low but consistently increases 🔰Report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️New hospital planning tool assesses capacity & impact of strategies to increase capacity ➡️Improves responsiveness of health systems to pandemic ➡️Publicly available, interactive and adaptable 🔰Full report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus ➡️#COVID19 pandemic could disrupt bed net distributions & core health services ➡️malaria burden could more than double in 2020 as a result ➡️distribution of long-lasting insecticide treated nets essential to mitigate risk 🔰Report
UPDATE: #COVID19 in mainland China: ➡ Early implementation & timely adjustment of control measures important to contain transmission ➡ Data made publicly available as additional source for research & policy planning 🔰Report
UPDATE: #COVID19 impact on HIV, TB & Malaria ➡️Related deaths over 5 years could increase up to 10-36% in high burden settings ➡️Maintaining critical prevention & healthcare services significantly reduce the overall impact of the COVID-19 epidemic 🔰Report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus Europe (11 countries) ➡️1.88% to 11.43% of population infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March ➡️Interventions have already impacted control of the epidemic ➡️Interventions have saved between 21,000 & 120,000 lives 🔰Report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus ➡️ London NHS trust hospitals with multi-ethnic catchment population ➡️ Outcomes of hospitalised #COVID19 patients ➡️ Description of association with age, sex, comorbidity & ethnicity 🔰
New Imperial College report released today: "In Italy, our results suggest that, cumulatively, 5.9 [1.9-15.2] million people have been infected as of March 28th"
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️Public can guide research priorities ➡️Need for social studies on experiences, risk perception & behaviour ➡️Ineffective communication, poor access to- & information overload lead to concern confusion & panic 🔰Full report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus ➡️ London NHS trust hospitals with multi-ethnic catchment population ➡️ Outcomes of hospitalised #COVID19 patients ➡️ Description of association with age, sex, comorbidity & ethnicity 🔰
Imperial’s COVID-19 Response Team reports and tools, including models, can be accessed on our website👇🏾
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 ➡53 countries studied, 3 sufficiently reduced mobility and R below 1 ➡️Mobility trends explain over 80% of observed variations in transmission ➡️Reduction in mobility of 57.3-65.9% sufficient for UK to reduce R 🔰Report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️New hospital planning tool assesses capacity & impact of strategies to increase capacity ➡️Improves responsiveness of health systems to pandemic ➡️Publicly available, interactive and adaptable 🔰Full report
The who I have dissed elsewhere in this account, nevertheless changed their overall policy to be stronger after this group updated their model TWO WEEKS ago. That report included details of the expectations for the US (find it and others here) 7/n
UPDATE: #COVID19science ➡️To accommodate all elective patients, hospital provision interventions to remain in place until there are less than 320 critical care #COVID19 patients ➡️Shortfalls driven by lack of nurses, beds & junior doctors 🔰Report:
UPDATE: #covid19science: ➡️23.6% of all deaths in England and 20.3% in Wales from #COVID19 ➡️4.4% (95% CI 3.2% - 5.7%) of all deaths in England are excess non-COVID-19 related deaths ➡️No excess COVID-19 deaths in Wales 🔰Report
UPDATE: #COVID19 in mainland China: ➡ Early implementation & timely adjustment of control measures important to contain transmission ➡ Data made publicly available as additional source for research & policy planning 🔰Report
UPDATE: #covid19science #COVID19 in USA ➡️Initial national average reproduction number R was 2.2 ➡️24 states have Rt over 1 ➡️Increasing mobility cause resurgence (doubling number of deaths in 8 weeks) ➡️4.1% of people infected nationally 🔰Report
Imperial Report 13: ­­Estimating number of infections and impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries Grim number 13 reading but essential to understand how to respond to the outbreak #COVID19
Your questions answered - an update (06-04-2020): on estimating number of infections & impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on #COVID19 in 11 European countries. 🔰Watch full video here 🔰Read full report here
Effects interventions in 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March [95% interval 21,000-120,000]. Across all 11 countries 7-43 million infected with #COVID19 up to 28th March: 1.88-11.43%. See also Nature
UPDATE: #COVID19science ➡️To accommodate all elective patients, hospital provision interventions to remain in place until there are less than 320 critical care #COVID19 patients ➡️Shortfalls driven by lack of nurses, beds & junior doctors 🔰Report:
PS: Aside, best place so far for COVID19 studies is Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team and 's reports. Report 09: Forecast for UK and USA Report 12: Global impact in numbers. Report 13: Forecast for 11 European nations. cc:
UPDATE: #covid19science: ➡️23.6% of all deaths in England and 20.3% in Wales from #COVID19 ➡️4.4% (95% CI 3.2% - 5.7%) of all deaths in England are excess non-COVID-19 related deaths ➡️No excess COVID-19 deaths in Wales 🔰Report
Extremely helpful chart of when different countries introduced different measures, from the latest paper
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️Public can guide research priorities ➡️Need for social studies on experiences, risk perception & behaviour ➡️Ineffective communication, poor access to- & information overload lead to concern confusion & panic 🔰Full report
UPDATE: #Coronavirus #COVID19 ➡️testing important to monitor epidemic ➡️weekly screening of high-risk groups reduces transmission by a third ➡️community testing unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing & symptom-based quarantine 🔰
"we est. across all 11 [EU] countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March" .. "we est. that [the non-pharmaceutical] interventions across all 11 countries will have averted 59,000 deaths up to 31 March"
The link is in my report on our live page but here it is too