One of the most frequently cited models #COVID19- outcomes, updated, now published Case fatality ratio 1.38% Infection fatality ratio 0.66% Very strong age gradient
The death rate from confirmed #COVID19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate incl. unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%; rates are lower than past estimates, given adjustments for demographics and undetected symptomatic cases (3/4)
Today in Comprehensive #COVID19 #Coronavirus hospitalisation and death rate estimates help countries best prepare as global pandemic unfolds. Read full article here:
NEW #COVID19 Modelling Research Article—First comprehensive hospitalisation estimates from mainland China & latest death rate estimates to help countries prepare as global pandemic unfolds Thread (1/4)
Updated estimate #COVID19 Overall CFR 1.4% & infection fatality rate 0.6%
A modelling study on fatality related to #COVID19 3 points: 1. Average time from symptom onset to death = 17.8 days 2. "Mortality 6.4% in those aged ≥60 years, up to 13.4% in those aged 80 years or older" 3. Estimated fatality ratio 0.66% for China
New research Article: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis by and colleagues #COVID19
IMPORTANT STUDY on death rates out in Lancet Infectious Diseases. The older you are, the more deadly. Middle aged folk above 50 (like me) certainly are not safe. Overall, this thing is about 30 times more deadly than the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic.
"Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis" case fatality ratio * crude: 2.3% (2.2-2.4) * adj. for censoring: 3.7% (3.6-3·8) * adj. for demography etc: 1.4% (1.2-1.5) -> infection fatality ratio: 0.66% (0.39-1.33)
Nearly 1 in 5 over-80 y-os infected with #COVID19 are likely to require hospitalisation, compared with around 1% of people younger than 30 y, with hospitalisation estimates found to increase with age (2/4)
You're going to see this figure from a recent paper () a lot in the coming days to describe the "Spectrum of COVID-19 cases", that is, the "spectrum of illness" Let me explain why I'm so unsatisfied with this figure.
The debate on voluntary infection-and-quarantine coming up again. Estimates of COVID CFR for 20—40 y.o.s is around 0.1%. (Selecting on those without underlying conditions would likely make this significantly lower.)
Estimates are it takes 2-3 weeks from symptom onset to death (see below). But symptom onset takes ~5 days. And there's a lag between when a death occurs and when it's recorded. So maybe a 4-week lag total from infection to a death showing up in the data.
Today in Comprehensive #COVID19 #Coronavirus hospitalisation and death rate estimates help countries best prepare as global pandemic unfolds. Read full article here Proud to be part of this team
At almost every age, the mortality rate due to #COVID19 is 10x higher than for #influenza Source influenza: Source covid-19: LOG SCALE:
Today in : estimates of case fatality, infection fatality, hospitalization rates for age groups based on data from Wuhan, Diamond Princess and repatriated foreigners from Wuhan (who were tested). Average time from onset to death is 18.8 days.
New in > Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis #COVID19
1/ New Lancet study reports #COVID19 IFR of 0.66%. What is IFR (infection fatality ratio)? And how does it differ from CFR (case fatality ratio)?
Today in Comprehensive #COVID19 #Coronavirus hospitalisation and death rate estimates help countries best prepare as global pandemic unfolds. Read full article here:
Estimates of the severity of #COVID19: a model-based analysis. Estimated overall infection fatality ratio for China was 0·66% (0·39–1·33), with an increasing profile with age.
"From an extensive analysis of data from different regions of the world, our best estimate at the current time for the case fatality ratio of COVID-19 in China is 1·38%" Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Italy, China, and other death rates also suggest this is roughly correct.... Younger/healthier people do take longer to die in every epidemic but reality is COVID-19 is dramatically worse (on average) in older individuals w comorbidity v younger ones
New paper in the Lancet estimates the infection to death rate for Covid-19 at .657%, with a confidence interval .389–1.33%. (For the statistically uninclined, that mean about 1 death for every 130 infections).
I had high hopes that this would go beyond the only measure of severity usually mentioned: alive vs dead. #covid19 #epitwitter #MedTwitter Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Appreciable fatality rates in middle age: Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Estimates of the severity of #coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis
Trying to cautious ;) I actually haven’t followed it closely. Not much interested if the CCP is lying about this. I’ve been more interested in the mortality rate! Anyway, here ‘tis
Testing rates for Coronavirus dictate differences in fatality rates among countries. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis