The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
There will be no quick return to our previous lives, according to nearly two dozen experts. But there is hope for managing the scourge now and in the long term.
Jack Shafer
276d ago
This coronavirus overview by infectious diseases reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. is the single best thing I've read all month.
981
โThere is no scenario, epidemiologists agreed, in which it is safe for that many people to suddenly come out of hiding. If Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks.
Then the emergency rooms will get busy again.โ
20 experts apparently shared thoughts for this article by Donald McNeil Jr. Two women are quoted. Both speak about their families. Do better, @nytimes.
Our infectious diseases reporter Donald G. McNeil Jr. asked experts what they expect in the near future in the U.S.
Their answers make it clear there's hope for managing the coronavirus crisis now and in the long term. But the year ahead will be painful.
A sobering assessment of the next few years, based on interviews with more than 20 experts in public health, medicine & history. Most agreed that the president's optimistic projections at his daily press briefings are a fantasy. By Donald G. McNeil Jr.
Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, is arguably the leading cause of death in the U.S. right now.
More than 20 experts in public health, medicine, epidemiology and history shared their thoughts on what to expect in the year ahead. nyti.ms/3bABQG9 pic.twitter.com/0tG4sIcgL3
How the pandemic will end depends in part on medical advances still to come โ and on how individuals behave in the interim.
Read more from Donald G. McNeil Jr.'s interviews with nearly 2 dozen experts in public health, medicine, epidemiology and history.
This is a McNeil master class, and the platonic ideal of its kind of journalism. Clear, spartan writing packed with expertise, absurdly information-dense without being a slog.
More Americans may die than the White House is admitting.
The scenario President Trump has been unrolling at his briefings โ that it will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that stadiums will be full by fall โ is a fantasy, experts said. nyti.ms/2VjUNXK pic.twitter.com/DEHLPkeMRJ
"The scenario that Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings โ that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy, most experts said."
"If Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks.
Then the emergency rooms will get busy again."
It will be two years of "fits and starts" in opening the country back up from the coronavirus, per Don McNeil.
"If too many people get infected at once, new lockdowns will become inevitable."
This piece from Donald G. McNeil, Jr., might be the most important thing you read today.
"If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us." -- Donald -- never Don -- G. McNeil Jr. on the coronavirus year to come
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ A very thoughtful article by Donald G. McNeil Jr. in @nytimes
Interesting detail in this NYT piece: the fermentation tanks at breweries and distilleries could be converted to vaccine production. Given the likely rough year ahead for these businesses, a program to buy some of them out may not be a bad idea.
President Trumpโs vision for a swift return to normal is a fantasy, over 20 experts told us. Hereโs what they predict instead for the year ahead.
This is a phenomenal piece of reporting, analysis, and synthesis of everything you need to know about Coronavirus right now. It is rare to read a writer with such complete mastery of his subject.
Weโre in for a lot of hardship and pain in the next year to eighteen months.
The record is 4 years.
nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/B5SP3e3G9Q
โChina reported about 100 new infections per day, recently closed all the countryโs movie theaters again. Singapore has closed all schools and nonessential workplaces. South Korea is struggling; Japan recently declared a state of emergencyโ Go for ZERO.
The fundamental facts about Trumpโs re-election is that heโs trying to do it in the midst of a cratering economy, a unified opposition, and no practical scenario in which things return to normal before November. 5/x
Incredibly in-depth story on coronavirus and our futures dealing with the disease โ and a story that is also incredibly easy to understand
"China did not allow Wuhan, Nanjing or other cities to reopen until intensive surveillance found zero new cases for 14 straight days, the virusโs incubation period. Compared with China or Italy, the United States is still a playground."
This is very well done. Not a fun read though. But very helpful for setting expectations.
Until a vaccine or other protective measure emerges, there is no scenario, epidemiologists agreed, in which it is safe for that many people to suddenly come out of hiding. If Americans pour back out in force, all will appear quiet for perhaps three weeks.
President Trumpโs vision for a swift return to normal is a fantasy, over 20 experts told us. Hereโs what they predict instead for the year ahead.
President Trumpโs vision for a swift return to normal is a fantasy, over 20 experts told us. Hereโs what they predict instead for the year ahead.
โWe face a doleful future,โ said Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg, a former president of the National Academy of Medicine.
Interesting hypothesis that asymptomatic carriers actually have a different strain of the virus โ one thatโs less harmful nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/15VUPhUhZd
Ok, Iโve been criticizing numbers that are too low, now Iโll criticize some numbers that are too high. This 2.2M US dead by September number is bogus. /1
โThe scenario that Trump has been unrolling at his daily briefings โ that lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy, most experts said.โ
I gravitate toward stories that are difficult to read because they tell it like it is. This Donald McNeil Jr. look at the future is bleak but realistic. And @MishaFriedman photos are stark and stunning, especially given limits on shooting at hospitals.
nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/cFNhTjC62W
โThe scenario that Mr. Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings โ that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy, most experts said.โ
Every sentence packs a punch in this story. The reopening scenario that Trump talks about almost daily โis a fantasy, most experts said.โ Not unrelated: the scale of the pandemic will depend on how โindividual Americans behave.โ
There will be no quick return to our previous lives. But what we do now will help us re-open society sooner and more safely. @nytimes looks at criteria from @ResolveTSL for when society can reopen and when it must be closed. nyti.ms/3czdUTA #PreventEpidemics #BoxItIn
"If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us." - Donald G. McNeil Jr. nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ #COVUD19 #coronavirus
More than 20 experts in public health, medicine and history shared their thoughts on the future.ย Most believed that once the crisis was over, the nation and its economy would revive quickly. But there would be no escaping a period of intense pain.
More than 20 experts in public health, medicine and history shared their thoughts on the future.ย Most believed that once the crisis was over, the nation and its economy would revive quickly. But there would be no escaping a period of intense pain.
More than 20 experts in public health, medicine and history shared their thoughts on the future.ย Most believed that once the crisis was over, the nation and its economy would revive quickly. But there would be no escaping a period of intense pain.
Hard to read, but maybe better to discuss the potential realities than live in denial.
Vaccine game theory is grim: โIndia and Brazil have large vaccine industries. If the virus moves rapidly through crowded populations, they may lose millions of citizens but achieve widespread herd immunity. They might have spare vaccine plant capacity.โ
This is one of the best articles I've read on the next few years. Comprehensive, insightful, forthright. Raises many important points that have not been given much consideration elsewhere
Trump scenario "that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums & restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy."
โWe face a doleful future.โ
--Dr. Harvey Fineberg, National Academy of Medicine
Don McNeil, NYT, masterful summary of where we are today, looking ahead. A must-read.
Informed, sobering discussion of what the next year will / may look like. Lots in here. Yes, more testing. Yes, hoping for new therapeutics. But IMO #1 question to answer: are we willing to isolate all mild cases and quarantine possible exposed contacts?
"The virus has killed more than 1,800 Americans almost every day since April 7, and the official toll may be an undercount. By comparison, heart disease typically kills 1,774 Americans a day, and cancer kills 1,641."
Exactly how the pandemic will end depends in part on medical advances still to come. It will also depend on how individual Americans behave in the interim.
I don't know how we track 90% of contacts, or if our economy can wait until we can.
"The lockdowns will end haltingly. Putting safety first could mean reopening only after...90 percent of contacts of infected people could be traced..."
this article is worth reading when you get the chance โ lays out possible pathways out of our current status with this virus and over the next year โ and, perhaps, the era after an event of this magnitude will see big changes for the better nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/cjNDIuGP5S
@RepSwalwell Here is a really really good article that answered a lot of questions for me. Remember, the @NYTimes has opened up it's paper to everyone.
NYTimes: The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
Good (long) NYT piece on โthe year aheadโ by D. McNeil.
Spotlight on vaccine manufacturing was particularly salient & smart โ requires advance planning SOON.
(Manufacturing is an unsexy biopharma issue thatโs often ignored, until it *really* matters.)
โExactly how the pandemic will end depends in part on medical advances still to come... If we scrupulously protect ourselves and our loved ones, more of us will live. If we underestimate the virus, it will find us.โ
โThe scenario that Mr. Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings โ that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy, most experts said.โ
My comments in tomorrowโs โฆ@nytimesโฉ article by Donald McNeil Jr
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead. Donald McNeil Jr. takes a look at the tough future we face.
Porn to be free?๐ โCalifornia adult-film industry pioneered a similar idea a decade ago. Actors use a cellphone app to prove they have tested H.I.V. negative in the last 14 days, and producers can verify the information on a password-protected website.โ
Long read and the beginning may not entice you to continue, but it gets increasingly better and interesting (and not just for Americans).
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead. More than 20 experts in public health, medicine, epidemiology and history shared their thoughts on the future during in-depth interviews
The Year Ahead: There will be no quick return to our previous lives, but there is hope for managing the #coronavirus scourge now and in the long term nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ via @nytimes #COVID19
The scenario that Mr. Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings โ that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy, most experts said.
"Coronavirus and the year ahead" - this is a good read with lots of experts sharing their thoughts
Catching up on COVID-19 reading? Here are some of the many pieces worth your time. First up, Donald McNeil's authoritative look at the year ahead
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead nyti.ms/2ysI63I โOn the models, the curves of rising and falling deaths resemble a row of shark teeth.โ pic.twitter.com/GA2oGBUNXb
An unsparing look at what comes next. โIf we underestimate the virus, it will find us.โ #COVID19 The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
"The scenario that Mr. Trump has been unrolling at his daily press briefings โ that the lockdowns will end soon, that a protective pill is almost at hand, that football stadiums and restaurants will soon be full โ is a fantasy, most experts said."
I've been speculating about this for a couple of days. This is the first time I've seen this suggestion from someone besides myself. (I'm not suggesting I want actual credit for the idea - I was/am sure if it's plausible that experts thought of it first.)
nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/FHIm8ryKUp
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead,
an excellent #COVID19 article by Donald McNeil
Reminder: Models based on no one doing anything at all to stop the virus, not even more handwashing and voluntary social distancing, have nothing to do with the real world. nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/VAlsnBP5bu
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ pic.twitter.com/qSqcRk447u
Unless we get a highly effective treatment or vaccine in the near future, the key to control will be intensive public health shoe leather. That is going to cost a lot of money, but no-one is going to make a profit. How do we pull that off in 2020 America?
The #coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead
nytimes.com/2020/04/18/heaโฆ via @nytimes
When can we emerge from our homes? How long before we have a treatment or vaccine for #COVID19? How will we keep the virus at bay? @NYTimes looks at what we can expect in the year ahead, including advice from @DrTomFrieden. nyti.ms/3czdUTA #PreventEpidemics #KnowCOVID
There will be no quick return to our previous lives, according to nearly two dozen experts. But there is hope for managing the scourge now and in the long term. ๐ฆ
Our tough future. Excellent piece from Don McNeil about what life is going to look like under Coronavirus.
OVERLOOKED? This sentence, in a big NYT piece, seems possibly relevant now--in a good way:
"In the movies, viruses become more deadly. In reality, they usually become less so, because asymptomatic strains reach more hosts."
โOur knowledge gaps are still wide enough to make epidemiologists weep.โ buff.ly/2xIACtB pic.twitter.com/zT04CICAAQ
This article is full of ideas. And I've seen lots of good ideas about the government providing financial guarantees to companies who could build factory capacity.
But is any of this actually happening?
The Coronavirus in America: The Year Ahead - Good overview of whatโs coming
