According to CDC's dashboard update today, U.S. had 311,882 excess deaths above the average expected number from Feb 1 - Oct 10. Since Mar 1, total deaths are up 17%, their statisticians report. Horrific numbers. Repeat after me: This is not the flu.
That's a lot of excess deaths! releases new online tool (with data and visualization tools, too). This approach to estimating the impact of epidemics (by simply counting excess deaths) has been long employed in public health.
CDC has a great tool for graphing excess deaths: Here are total weekly deaths in US, Jan 2017-Apr 2020. The Jan 2018 bump is from the flu. The 2017-2018 flu season killed 80,000 people, highest number of flu deaths in 40 years
The CDC's data seem to show a rise in deaths due to any cause in several age groups in Arizona for weeks ending June 6 and June 13 (caveat: data are adjusted for reporting delays and might be too high or low):
Mar 21-May 9, excess US deaths have ranged from 5% to 36%.
CDC: Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19
July 8 update on excess deaths in USA, from CDC: Still going down.
⚠️ Excess deaths not decreasing as I previously believed! ⚠️
Aware of my prediction, here is latest CDC data (dated 1 Aug. posted 12 Aug.) . Corrected for delays, Excess Death is near baseline so it may be over by 25 Aug. Reported CV Death is 169,350 so my estimate too low. Still happy COVID19 death may be over soon.
So.... about those "excess deaths" from #COVID19. What happens if you pull out NYC,NY & NJ into their own group vs the rest of the country? Take a look! (data here: )
Regarding the Only 6% nonsense, it is indeed valuable to have more than one way to count deaths, which is why CDC also look at total “excess deaths” above a normal year, to double check: ~214,000 excess American deaths in 2020 so far. COVID-19.
USA: CDC now showing an estimated 191,182 to 231,390 excess deaths between March 22 and August 15. (the most recent weeks are partially complete) By comparison confirmed toll on Aug 15 was 169,780. #COVID19 #coronavirus
CDC data unequivocally show excess deaths in the USA in 2020 coincide with Covid-19 outbreak.
Excess Deaths in 2020: You can try cherry picking any single case to rationalize a denial viewpoint that Covid19 is no big deal, but then you are left sputtering to explain 200,000+ excess deaths so far this year in the United States.
New CDC excess deaths data are out. Currently at 254,820 since late March. All-causes mortality is 12.7% above expected levels for the year through Sept. 5
The number of deaths caused by COVID are higher than deaths that had definitive diagnosis. On order of 225,000 excess deaths have occurred from mid Mar to Aug 29. Often takes weeks to enter deaths into national databases, so this is serious undercount 17/x
I think these are the two most important graphs to understand the ongoing pandemic crisis in USA: (note the caveats about data lag of 1–8 weeks) /cc
Graph with info reported as of 4/30. CDC issued an estimate of where they think that number will get (marked in grey) Sources: 2020 info: Historic: Est:
The attributions of cause are always going to be problematic. Just count the total number of death certificates issued and compare it to a typical week:
It's bad. Compare excess deaths in the historically-bad 2017-18 flu season (80K estimated flu deaths) to what we are seeing in the CDC data so far.
What data source are you using for this? I use the CDC "excess deaths" data: The drawback of that data is that it is very lagged — up to 8 weeks of that data is not yet updated.
The issued a new report on excess US deaths today In it, this graph is interactive for week-to-week variance of observed deaths vs expected, using prior time periods
The weekly update from CDC on excess deaths in USA:
Overall deaths in US over the last several years. Perspective. Proportion. (Ideally like to go decades back.)
The weekly update on excess deaths in USA, from CDC:
The CDC's "excess deaths per week" data just got updated again. Still looks like it is going in the right direction! (But remember that updates to this data can be up to eight weeks lagged.) CDC site: Previous tweets in this series:
July 15 update on total excess deaths from all causes in USA:
2/ Based on conservative bands, 56,073 excess deaths occurred between July 4-Aug 30. So: 194,107 deaths officially now + 16,000 pre-July excess + half of 56,073 Jul/Aug excess = 238,173 #COVID19 deaths in the United States.
Looks like 150-200k excess deaths in USA so far. Far beyond normal flu seasons (like 2-3?) but nowhere near big scary million numbers some predicted.
Basically, the recent Covid crisis wasn't so bad, but, to the extent it was bad, it was a Hispanic crisis:
Now we're starting to see a net reduction in total US deaths (compared to average for this time of year) due to the effects of quarantine. These are today's numbers from the CDC (corrected for underreporting)
How Covid compares to the last bad flu season (2017-2018) in terms of "excess deaths" (deaths above the average for that time of year), according the CDC. Updated this morning with latest data
This week's statistics about all-cause excess deaths from
. now has weekly excess deaths by race/ethnicity by state. This chart is for #Connecticut, with % increase (top) & # of excess deaths. In mid-April, deaths were ~250% above normal for Black/Latino residents & ~100% above normal for whites. #COVID19
The just updated its "excess deaths" tracker for June 6 and added some good visualization options, including one showing its estimate of how many of the excess deaths are due to Covid Are those non-Covid excess deaths the flu or undercounted Covid?
Encouraging new stat from . Total US deaths for all causes (including Covid) are well below average for the latest week reported (May 23) Usual caveats about lead times & incomplete data, but if this holds up we're now seeing *fewer* deaths than usual
What the CDC ACTUALLY says is that Covid deaths may be undercounted.
President has started to say that the number of deaths from Covid is not real and people died of other causes “but had a positive test”. Here is the updated CDC report on excess deaths attributed to the disease. (factcheck )
The most recent weekly (weeks ending Oct 3 & 10) US all-cause death rates have declined to the predicted rate - suggesting *no excess mortality* since Sept 26. Has anyone written about the good news?
I’m going to keep this updated, to correct for revised CDC figures, and push it further out in time as the data allow. But it should be useful to counter the idiots who claim there’s an overcount. Data are available here.
Hm, total excess deaths in USA according to CDC is 66,000. That's pretty close to 75,000 but why the discrepancy?
In US, 28,200 excess deaths over the course of the 2017-2018 flu season. Since March of this year: 191,011 excess deaths. (See: )
Everything I've seen shows the US to have excess mortality above reported COVID deaths (e.g. here ). I don't think that can explain this.