Texas is flattening the curve ... except where it’s not. The curve is not the same everywhere.
Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve. While epidemics in cities wane, they grow elsewhere
A sequence is happening here that is a bit baffling. 1. Hard hit cities flattened curves and showed mitigation works 2. Elsewhere, things are getting worse. 3. Instead of applying lessons from pt 1, we are moving to loosen stay at home restrictions
Ominous epidemic curves make a critical point To keep vulnerable people safe, we have to avoid the false binary choice between open vs stay closed Instead have to reopen, partway, and keep some distancing measures for months and months to come
America's curve is flat! but take out NYC, Detroit and NOLA, and cases have been rising this whole time the same thing is happening in Texas and Oklahoma, explaining why they're seeing numbers climb up after a "recovery." new here from :
it seems so many conversations about coronavirus assume a naturally-occuring "peak" after which it will naturally just start to fall. but that isn't a thing
Don't be fooled by the flattening curve. The are many mini-epidemics and more waves of #COVID19 to come, by via
Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve
“If you just look at the total number of cases, you miss what’s underneath. It’s not a leveling-off. It’s a handoff. What’s happening is a series of ‘mini-epidemics‘ as the earliest-hit metropolitan areas are now spawning outbreaks across the country.”
I would suggest decomposing the curve further. If you do that it’s pretty clear a few places with major outbreaks are getting better, but most of the rest of the country is getting worse. The curve is not actually flat
So it’s not time to open up the rest of the country just because New York City is flattening?
Outside of Houston, where stay home measures appear to have flattened the curve, rate of infection in Texas continues to rise.
Mr. Trump expects Republicans to die for his failures without asking questions.
Striking chart that separates NYC, Detroit & New Orleans (cities w large outbreaks) from the national coronavirus curve -- it makes clear the curve is actually climbing elsewhere: “It’s not a leveling-off. It’s a painful handoff.”
America has not flattened the curve. Remove New York City from the equation and the number of newly reported cases each day is still rising. This is without adequate testing. The Trump administration has decided now is a good time to reopen the economy.
"America’s current 'plateau' isn’t good news," writes . "Infections from the earliest-hit metropolitan areas are now spawning outbreaks of their own across the country."
What nation case data misses (new cases per day) — "Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve” By Nathaniel Lash
This is a sobering reminder that we are still in the early stages of this pandemic
Opinion | Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve
Important piece in the Times, today. "Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve."
"The national numbers offer a deceptive picture," writes . "The tail-end of the national epidemic is not materializing."
Once again. Like the HIV epidemic and 9/11, New York City was hit hardest by #COVID19. And once again, NYC is responding. We need to follow NY’s example
“What’s happening is a series of “mini-epidemics,” each following the predictable curve that rises and falls as the virus runs out of susceptible people to infect... All the mini-epidemics are laid on top of one another, coming at different moments”
"State and local leaders shouldn’t expect that their epidemics are over just because the state passed an initial peak," writes . "Neither should the White House."
Great visualization from in what I believe is his first byline at NYT! And an opinion byline! Welcome to the dark side, friend.
This is just a terrible argument, because it doesn't control for the increase in testing in the U.S., which would necessarily lead to an increase in confirmed cases regardless of whether there were "mini-epidemics" or not.
The National and Intra-state Coronavirus curves don't mean a damn when you remove the fully shut down cities. The somewhat flattened US curve itself shoots upward when you remove just New York City. Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve
Don’t Be Fooled by America’s Flattening Curve
Do facts matter?
Don’t be fooled by America’s flattening curve. Most of the country has not reached a peak in cases - reopening will make it worse.