One of the things I love about my job is that I learn so many new things with every story. That was particularly true in my reporting for this story about #covid19 clusters and susperspreading events. Read it here and/or bear with me for a thread...
There is increasing interest in superspreading for COVID-19, not least due to an excellent article by on the topic 1/9
An excellent overview of clustering of disease transmission and its importance for COVID19 dynamics and control. Featuring work from and input from and others
Really interesting piece by about the role clustered transmission is playing in #Covid-19 spread.
There's so much we can learn from #COVID19 superspreaders and related events. Thankfully this meta-analysis, by 's Gwenan Knight & colleagues, culls it together and is crystallized by
"Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread." Thought-provoking article, featuring research from & on the potential settings that can result in #COVID19 transmission. Read more ⬇️
Most eye-opening fact in 's story this week: Most COVID-19 patients don't infect anyone else. (That means preventing superspreading events would go a long way towards containing the virus. )
This is a very interesting article about super-spreaders. A small minority of people - 10% - are responsible for 80% of infections. Those people tend to be being noisy in some way (singing, shouting or just generally loud speakers) or doing sports.
Science is showing that outdoor transmission is rare
Leave it to to give a *really* good explainer on superspreading events and why this might be good news for SARS-CoV-2. ⭐️👇
confirmation de ce que nous disons depuis bien longtemps : dedans/dehors, port de masque impératif en lieux clos pour éviter une minorité d événements qui font une majorité d infectés ; 10% des infectés sont responsables de 80% de cas secondaires
Superspreaders & high “k values” of risk activities: shouting (as with deaf elderly ) singing choirs, heavy breathing (vigorous exercise/illness) cold&/noisy places, indoors 19x more risky than outdoors... thanks ⁦⁩ ⁦
Meatpacking plants are likely vulnerable because: - many people work closely together in spaces where low temperature helps the virus survive - loud places Numerous clusters happened in places where people shout or sing.
Super spreaders of #COVID19 are often in places where people shout (loud bar) or sing (chorus). Interesting data that can help with deciding re-opening. Outdoors is your best bet for now. ⁦
Here's some evidence that shows what happens when #Covid19 makes its way into a choir & this great article by compiles the evidence around mass gatherings & the dangerous role they play in spreading the SARS-CoV-2.
This article from supports what we said 2 weeks ago around the importance of indoors, confined environments with lots of ppl singing, talking, and touching each other.
Maybe it's not that the infection-fatality rate was lower than thought but that super-spreading is more predominant than thought. That apparently makes spread less smooth and predictable, and more concentrated around certain kinds of events and behaviors.
(1) Diese gute Zusammenfassung neuer Covid-19 neuer Studien in Science zeigt: Superspreader wichtig für Verbreitung. Es kann sein, dass 10% der Infizierten 80% der Neuinfektionen verursachen. Der sogenannte Dispersionsfaktor, ist niedrig. Das heisst...
1/ C'est l'article à lire absolument aujourd'hui. Alors que nos recommandations sanitaires sont calquées sur la grippe, le Covid-19 semble se propager de manière bien différente. C'est une pandémie à clusters, pas un virus qui se répand uniformément.
Religious gatherings, nursing homes, meat packing plants, choirs, ski resorts, ships. COVID-19 spreads in clusters, and powerfully explores the role these play in population spread--and how targeting them might help get us out of this mess.
So much fascinating stuff in this report on C-19 and superspreading. Most people do not transmit. 10% cases responsible for 80% of spread. Zumba classes spread more than Pilates.
But of course we know that COVID-19 doesn't spread like clockwork. Some cases generate a lot of transmission, while most generate little or none. In other words, outbreaks seem to be driven by superspreading. 3/
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread.
This story by is the most interesting thing I've read all week: looking at the role of clusters in the spread of the #coronavirus, and how that may explain why some COVID-19 patients infect many others, and others don't spread the virus at all.
I’m betting this line of research becomes a lot more prominent over the coming months. You’ll see more discussion of k alongside Rt and R0.
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? | Science | AAAS
What explains #COVID19 superspreader events? Me: Repeated themes are crowding, prolonged contact, & forceful exhalation (cruises, nightclubs, exercise class, choir practice, meatpacking plants w/ ambient noise). I am putting my money on inoculum size.
Why do some #COVID19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
Why do some #COVID19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
Very interesting work from and colleagues in #Bern and others - #R matters but #dispersion #K also matters in considering what #lockdown to impose or release. Issues of #stigma and #blame so very important for #buyin #ContactTracing
Good reminder as lockdown loosens that it’s important to avoid large gatherings! 10% cases lead to 80% of spread! Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? | Science | AAAS
Interesting news coverage here on work to prevent super-spreading events as countries try to reduce lockdowns safely. Concerts, choir practices & intense gym classes may be off the cards for a long time...
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? | Science | AAAS
Get to know dispersion factor, it's important #COVID19
We're also learning a lot about spread and how relatively small interventions have outsized impact. This article was very good: The response in u.s far from ideal but combine our half measures with vaccine mid 2021 many just might outrun virus til then
would be good to see more discussion of k, the dispersion factor for disease replication: if 10% of spreaders cause 80% of cases --> behavioral tweaks have great potential. Do masks make people quieter? also a stadium full of cheering fans: bad idea.
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
On COVID-19 intense clusters, a reminder of John Snow on cholera: crowded indoor spaces with loud talking: bars, choirs, parties, social events. Also cool temperatures favor clusters, as in meat-packing. Death clusters = presence of people in poor health.
Why do some #COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? by via
“Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its #Covid_19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions”
“That’s why in addition to R, scientists use a value called the dispersion factor (k), which describes how much a disease clusters.” Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? | ⁦⁩ ⁦
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
Good article about what we know of how most infection takes place. Interesting: shutdowns closed “the window of opportunity when a lot of these data” about super-spreading “could‘ve been collected.” With reopening, presumably we now get a second chance?
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? Excellent review by of the role of superspreaders with a virus with a low dispersion factor
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? via
This is a brilliant article about something that has been puzzling me for a while: superspreader events. wrote it very clearly. Now clearly care homes make a new sense
‘Why coronaviruses cluster so much more than other pathogens is a really interesting open scientific question’
Why do some #COVID19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
"One thing links numerous clusters: They happened in places where people shout or sing."
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
Most encouraging science around COVID-19 yet. Might be only superspreader events we have to control, otherwise low risk. Pay attention to k, not just R, so to speak.
interesting piece by ... so much in here to think about ...
This is very good. Pulls together emerging threads on transmissibility. Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
Interesting article about superspreading events and why we, next to "R", should take "k" into account as well!
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? | Science | AAAS
“The consistent pattern is that the most common number is zero. Most people do not transmit.” “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” “Most published large transmission clusters ‘seem to implicate aerosol transmission,’”
“But in a recent preprint, Adam Kucharski of LSHTM estimated that k for COVID-19 is as low as 0.1. “Probably about 10% of cases lead to 80% of the spread,” Kucharski says.”
15/ Last week, I discussed my biggest Covid surprises . Add to the list the phenomenon of super-spreaders – while average Covid pt infects ~2.5 others, it’s wildly heterogeneous, w/ some pts infecting dozens & others infecting no one
Why do some #COVIDー19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? The role of dispersion factor (k), clusters and superspreaders.
., a professor of pathogen dynamics at , on the implication of aerosol transmission in superspreader events👇.
Fear of stigma will stymie research and action
Interesting analysis of why some people are "superspreaders": )
The SEIR modelling doesn't take into account *where* the infected or susceptible population is. Doesn't make sense. Some estimates point out that 10% of people cause 80%(!) of transmissions.
Why do some #COVID19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?
“encouraging finding, scientists say, because it suggests that restricting gatherings where superspreading is likely to occur will have a major impact on transmission, and that other restrictions—on outdoor activity, for example—might be eased.”
Interesting piece on clusters and COVID spread
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all? | Science | AAAS A short, good discussion of superspreading #covid-19
Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?