Breaking News: If the U.S. had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University researchers
Donald Trump’s inaction cost lives.
Yesterday, Trump was asked what he would have done differently to avoid the U.S. accounting for 30% of the world's COVID-19 cases. His response: "Well, nothing." The real answer: By acting earlier, he could have saved tens of thousands of lives.
This data is damning not just for Trump, but also for de Blasio and Cuomo, in the human cost >
This is the cost of having a President that didn’t take the virus seriously because he was relying on the advice of Fox News commentators instead of medical experts
This is a stunning indictment. The denials of science and delay in acting were catastrophic. (And had nothing to do w/China!) The question is whether the same reckless disregard will be repeated now, as the country reopens?
Starting social distancing across the U.S. just a week earlier in March could have saved tens of thousands of lives, according to estimates from Columbia University researchers. Here's how that could have reduced coronavirus deaths city by city.
⚠️New: “if the US had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83% — would have been avoided.” ➡️ that’s the price of delay.
If leaders had listened to experts and established social distancing measures just two weeks before they did, we could have saved 83% of the American lives lost so far to the pandemic. It didn't have to be this way.
“If the United States had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia University disease modelers.”
“In the New York metro area alone, 21,800 people had died by May 3. Fewer than 4,300 would have died by then if control measures had been put in place and adopted nationwide just a week earlier, on March 8”
A grim indictment of Trump’s leadership, but also Cuomo and de Blasio.
Bill de Blasio closed the NYC schools on March 15; Cuomo issued a stay-at-home order on March 22. 21,800 people died in the New York metro area by May 3. Fewer than 4,300 would have died if control measures had been put in place just a week earlier.
Had the US begun locking down just one week earlier, it would have saved 36,000 lives, study finds, and if it had done so two weeks earlier it would have saved 54,000 lives. ⁦⁩ ⁦
If Trump had ordered NYC shut down on March 1st, Gov. Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio, and most citizens in NYC, would have ignored him. We all know this is true.
36,000 souls. That’s how many lives were lost because Trump failed to act more quickly to lock down the country. Probably more. We should all be outraged.
Lockdown delays cost at least 36,000 lives in the U.S.
Let's ignore the reams of data now showing lockdowns failed and run yet another story using the wildly wrong pro-lockdown models claiming lockdowns would have saved us if they had been harder and earlier -- The Newspaper of Record
Stunning. Tragic. Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show.
36,000 fewer people would have died in the US if stay-at-home measures had been imposed just one week earlier in March. 83% of deaths could have been avoided had lockdowns started March 1.
This is heartbreaking. As we grieve the deaths of nearly 100,000 Americans, we must remember that listening to the experts and reopening responsibly can spare us from more unnecessary tragedy.
If the U.S. had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from Columbia researchers.
Great visualization — if the U.S. had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died
REPORT: "Not locking down quickly enough cost at least 36,000 lives in one week." MAGA RESPONSE: "Let's quickly stop locking down, y'all!"
3. A new study shows that if Trump had listened to the experts & begun physical distancing just *one week earlier*, some 36,000 lives would have been saved.
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show - The New York Times
Even a small delay in mandating social distancing and lockdowns cost lives
Now do delays in climate action
Simulations show that Trump's inaction directly led to tens of thousands of deaths that could have been avoided simply by doing exactly what we did 2 weeks earlier than we did it
If the United States had begun imposing social-distancing measures one week earlier in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the pandemic, according to new estimates
If the US began social distancing one week earlier than it did in March, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak. 83% of deaths would have been avoided if distancing began on March 1.
This "study" appears to be just another SEIR simulation with the presumptive effectiveness of lockdowns hard-coded into the model, and no causal identification strategy for the same. It's deeply deceptive to pass that off as evidence favoring lockdowns.
What an epic disaster
I'd like to see this sort of study for "if everyone had worn masks" (instead of the surgeon general telling everyone in all caps not to wear masks)
Crises are defined by ambiguity and decision makers have to act with imperfect information. Leaders will make errors of overreaction and under-reaction, but with COVID 19, under-reaction is the much worse error. 1/
If the US had begun imposing social distancing measures one week earlier, about 36,000 fewer people would have died in the coronavirus outbreak, according to new estimates from disease modelers.
If the U.S. had begun enacting #PhysicalDistancing just a week earlier in March, about 36,000 lives could have been saved, disease modeling suggests, by via #COVID19
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Shows: even small differences in timing would have prevented the worst exponential growth, which by April had subsumed New York City, New Orleans and other major cities, researchers found. via
Lots of media coverage of the striking numbers on front page today, based on a preprint from ( et al), and for good reason. We could have averted 36,000 deaths just by starting the lockdown 1 week earlier! (THREAD) 1/
Here’s a view of what would have happened if we really did something different #ClusterTrump
This should all sound familiar to us today. The slow response from the Trump administration has resulted in countless more deaths than may have otherwise resulted if the threat of the infection had been taken seriously from the very beginning.
If Trump had followed the advice we know he received and taken action just two weeks sooner, 54,000 Americans would still be alive.
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show
"if the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83% — would have been avoided, the researchers estimated."
Doesn't the news that 2/3 of the US deaths from COVID were caused by a ONE-WEEK delay in the US shutdown ALSO APPLY TO THE *DECADES* OF DELAY IN RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE TOO?
This estimate may well be right, but the more I have looked into these modeling efforts the more I have realized how many of them are dependent on causal assumptions without causal evidence.
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show - The New York Times
Coming up on #TDRlive: Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show
“The results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control. ..And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.”
Missed windows of opportunity cost lives. It's as true of climate change as it is of COVID.
What do you call it when government leader knows what to do to save lives in a pandemic, refuses to do it, and then at least 36,000 people who would have survived wind up dying? Because that the word Democrats should run on in 2020.
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show 🦠
The cost of the late shutdown by my amazing colleague Jeff Shaman.
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show - The New York Times
50% fewer U.S. deaths, had the country closed down one(!) week earlier. 80% fewer deaths in New York City! Sigh.
“If the country had begun locking down cities and limiting social contact on March 1, two weeks earlier than most people started staying home, the vast majority of the nation’s deaths — about 83 percent — would have been avoided” #CovidEcon
The contemplates what could have happened with a “go hard, go early” strategy like NZ’s.
South Korea accelerated #Covid_19 testing within DAYS of the first confirmed case, flattened curve in weeks, no lockdown. Contrast w/ US slow, inconsistent response and lockdown, and now # deaths > than Vietnam and Korean Wars combined. #WHO #pandemic
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show
The results show that as states reopen, outbreaks can easily get out of control unless officials immediately clamp down on new flare-ups. And they show that each day that officials waited to impose restrictions in early March came at a great cost.
Lockdown Delays Cost at Least 36,000 Lives, Data Show (just in the US)
#Covid19usa Disease modelers from Columbia University argue that, if the U.S. had locked down one week earlier, the subsequent death rate would have been less than half.
Deeply hope we don't make this mistake again in the 2nd wave
There's also this in the NYT - I suspect the main reason why they get a rather smaller (though still large!) effect may be that they are only considering a portion of the epidemic. Though also the model is very much more complex.
At least 36,000 lives