A new resource for state-level reproduction numbers and scenario-based forecasts is now available from Imperial College
Imperial College Report 23, released today, estimates IFR for all US states. Almost all of the CDC's parameter range falls well below the almost all of the probability mass in the Imperial estimates.
Checkout the latest piece of work from our team on state-level tracking of covid-19 in the US. . Congratulations Axel, and .
With lot's of hard work we got the new Rt estimates, effective infectious individuals and scenarios based on changes in mobility for the US online! Thank you !
"Our estimates suggest that the epidemic is not under control in much of the US: as of 17 May 2020, the reproduction number is above the critical threshold (1.0) in 24 states.”
Modelling from Imperial estimating 4.1% of US population has been infected with #SARSCoV2. Epidemic not under control in much of country. 1.3 million people may be currently infectious. Considerable mortality expected if social distancing relaxed. #COVID19
Latest report from Imperial College London on COVID-19 in the USA concludes: "there is little evidence that the epidemic is under control in the majority of states."
State-level tracking of #COVID19 in the United States
Imperial College predicts that deaths over the next 2month period in US could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold. Rapid testing, contact tracing & behavioural precautions crucial to prevent this model from becoming reality.
If you want to read something that is actually informative about where we are at with the epidemic rather than getting hung up on the seroprevalence in Santa Clara County I suggest the latest report from Imperial.
The R0 in 24 states in the USA is >1 (mostly in the South and MidWest) A/c to this model, the deaths in the next 2 months could be >current cumulative deaths from #COVIDー19
From Imperial's latest report: "While all US states have substantially reduced their reproduction numbers, we find no evidence that any state is approaching herd immunity or that its epidemic is close to over." (They estimate 16.6% of NY has been infected)
This report is sobering. We need to keep our resolve to battle this pandemic with social distancing while developing antivirals, antibody therapies and vaccines. And looking out for first line workers of all types.