Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a virus (more specifically, a coronavirus) identified as the cause of an outbreak of respiratory illness first detected in Wuhan, China.
Natalie E. Dean, PhD
CDC’s current best estimate of the overall *symptomatic* case fatality ratio is 0.4%? Source is preliminary CDC estimates...? That estimate is way too low. What is going on?
Carl T. Bergstrom
With guidance from this newly released CDC document, federal agencies are modeling the COVID pandemic using implausibly low fatality rate. Their "best estimate" has a symptomatic CFR of 0.4% Their worst case scenario has CFR — not IFR — of 1%
issued some very useful current best estimates: - About 1/3 of COVID-19 infections are asymptomatic. - 40% of transmission is occurring before people feel sick. - Time from exposure to symptom onset: ~6 days on average
report: the best CDC estimate for the death rate for #sarscov2 is ~1 in 400 infections, or ~ 1 in 3,000 for people under 50. The figures are here: a 0.4% death rate for symptomatic cases, but 35% of infections cause no symptoms at all.
David P Gelles
CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic, 0.4% of sick people with Covid-19 will die
The CDC has just released a new document in which they say their current "best estimate" for a CFR for COVID-19 is 0.4%. This is the *CFR*, meaning the *IFR* would be much lower, even lower than 0.1%.
Stumbled across this in a Google search: New CDC site recommending some numbers to modelers, including a best guess at the fatality rate that seems ... quite low.
CDC yesterday (source: NCIRD, Division of Viral Diseases): Covid-19 sCFR = 0.4%; IFR = sCFR / (1 / (1-.35)) = 0.26%
Cuomo had shutdown NY mid/late March thinking that 1 million cases will lead to 150K in the hospital (15% hospitalization rate) and 30K - 40K will be in the ICU. CDC says this week that the hospitalization rate is 3.4% of symptomatic cases.
Why wear a mask if you feel fine? The CDC estimates 40% of transmission happens before a person feels any symptoms. And 35% of COVID-19 carriers are asymptomatic.
The CDC looked at five scenarios with a 0.4% overall mortality rate considered the best estimate. The data shows a 1.3% rate of people 65+ dying from #COVID while the rate for those 0-49 is 0.05 %. Here's a link for more info:
estimates 35% #COVID patients may be asymptomatic. This increases risk of #SARSCoV2 community spread b/c can't easily detect cases w/o testing. But it also suggests a lower case fatality rate. Some bad & good news for #pandemic
CDC's new "best estimate" of COVID CFR (not IFR)=0.4%! Also cite 35% infections sans sx, implying 50% NYC seroprevalence when it was 21%. Their "source" is unsourced, i.e. "prelim CDC estimates." Science or politics?
Is our society prepared to talk about mass delusion as a public health menace? The
reports estimates IFR at 0.26%
♕Deborah G. Mayo♕
CDC gives an overall case-fatality ratio estimate for covid 19 of .004.