The Reich Lab is hiring a full-time software engineer (remote ok) to help us with the #COVID19 Forecast Hub! Please help spread the word. Apply here:
The first "academic" product from the #COVID19 Forecast Hub is up at medrxiv, a huge collaborative effort including folks from and many academic and industry research groups: Updated forecasts and more info available here:
#IDmodeling is good more than forecasting, but #COVID19 forecasts are what people want. What model is best? None of them. Or rather all of them. Ensembles are the way to go for hurricanes and epidemics. Check out the forecasthub to see why
Brief update this week from the #COVID19 Forecast Hub. You can read all about our effort to aggregate forecasts at . Our ensemble forecast predicts 139K cumulative deaths in the US by July 18, 2020. 1/
At the #COVID19 Forecast Hub, we continue to monitor and aggregate forecasts from over 30 teams who are working hard trying to create accurate forecasts of the coming weeks and months in the US. 1/
For the last few weeks, the COVID-19 Forecast Hub has collected forecasts of new #COVID19 cases at the county level in the US. For the US as a whole, models seem to think we are at or near a peak of reported cases by week. More raw data available at: 1/2
Reported deaths due to #COVID19 continue to tick up in the US. Last week reported 5,342 new deaths, more than the previous 2 weeks. Where are we headed next? The 25 models at the COVID-19 Forecast Hub give us some hints. 1/
There are numerous groups that have built solid, scientifically-sound models over the past few months. I've learned a lot from their work, but the public rarely hears about them. Let's change that. The COVID-19 Forecast Hub is a good place to start
We have a lot of fresh information about the #COVID19 Forecast Hub up at our new website, including updated forecasts for #COVID19 mortality in the US over the coming 4 weeks. 1/
As expected, #COVID19 mortality lags behind the new surge in cases. There is uncertainty about how the case surge will translate into increases in severe disease and mortality over the next few weeks. Some insights from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub: 1/