I wrote about the statistical mystery that’s obsessed me for the past few weeks—the gap between soaring COVID-19 cases and flatlining deaths - what explains it - why it matters - whether it's already closing - and how it’s being weaponized by the right
After all the graphs, statistics, science, and interpretations, we’re left with a simple fact: Hundreds of Americans are dying daily of a disease that's infecting hundreds of thousands of us each week. If that’s success, let’s pray we never see failure.
Many thanks to people who read, criticized, engaged with this piece today. This is the chart I keep coming back to, not only because it shows deaths spiking in hotspot states, but also because it tells a plausible two-part story of COVID.
Five possible explanations for the gap between rising coronavirus cases and death rates that have not climbed the same way (at least not yet).
This is such a great story that does a good job of grappling with "we don't know" and how to make that not feel like a cop out.
"Some epidemiologists have claimed that there is a relationship between viral load and severity. With more masks and more outdoor interactions, it’s possible that the recent surge is partly buoyed by an increase in these low-dosage cases."
"In the fog of pandemic, every statistic tells a story, but no one statistic tells the whole truth." Must-read
Wow, , your tweets are being cited by ! Good article on the many reasons of disjointed cases v deaths of #COVID__19 in the US: by
“Uncertainty is a cavity where propaganda can breed.” What we don’t know about this virus is very dangerous; claiming to know more than we do is even worse.
COVID-19 Cases Are Rising, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining? via
Coronavirus deaths will rise from the Southern Wave (indeed, they are already rising). But perhaps it won't be as bad as March/April. explains why
Here's a good article from the Atlantic that explains this growing case/death gap as a combination of factors, ranging from younger cohort to improved care
Why the gap in COVID cases and deaths? Combination of potential factors: 1. Deaths lag cases 2. Expanded testing 3. The typical COVID-19 patient is getting younger 4. Hospitalized patients are dying less frequently 5. Summer might be helping?
It's what happens with diseases. We learn how to treat them.
TIL: The Atlantic style guide apparently says that when the political party you disagree with uses data to support their argument, you can say they have "weaponized" it
COVID-19 remains a “bonfire of unknowns.” But we know this: “Hundreds of Americans are dying every day of a disease that is infecting several hundred thousand of them every week. If that’s success, let’s pray we never see failure.”
See here for more widely accepted explanations.
COVID-19 Cases Are Rising in USA, So Why Are Deaths Flatlining? The gap between soaring cases and falling deaths is being weaponized by the right to claim a hollow victory in the face of shameless failure. What’s really going on? via
"When President Trump and others point exclusively to lagging death figures during a surge, they are trying to tell you that America is, secretly, winning the war on #COVID19. But we’re not," writes
The summer surge in #COVID19 cases is an exceptionally American failure, born of absent leadership and terrible public-health communication.
"When President Trump and others point exclusively to lagging death figures during a surge, they are trying to tell you that America is, secretly, winning the war on COVID-19. But we’re not," writes
"When President Trump and others point exclusively to lagging death figures during a surge, they are trying to tell you that America is, secretly, winning the war on COVID-19. But we’re not," writes