Some mathematicians believe that the threshold for herd immunity could be lower than it originally seemed. But that will depend on us, writes
I tried to understand when we’d reach herd immunity. It turns out the number is largely up to us.
On how close we may be to a "herd immunity threshold"
The key to the spread of coronavirus may lie in chaos theory. Nice piece by .
This is an insightful and very important story from : It will change how you think about herd immunity
There are many sources of heterogeneity that can impact the future of the epidemic. But how to account for complex, time-varying, dramatic behavior changes? "What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context."
Glad this hypothesis getting some coverage. We still don't know if it's real, but it's worth exploring: "what makes Covid so dangerous in early stages of outbreaks—also gives a clue as to why those outbreaks could burn out earlier than initially expected"
Some mathematicians believe that the threshold for herd immunity could be lower than it originally seemed. But that will depend on us, writes
"You have some chance of being able to predict the first move in a game of chess, but good luck predicting the last." #COVID19 & Chaos Theory, herd immunity. Great read
How Herd Immunity Happens #GPHO
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
"Other wealthy countries could hypothetically create societies that are effectively immune to further surges... Even in the U.S., it’s not too late to create a world in which you are not likely to get the coronavirus."
Some guarded optimism in here, especially for NYC
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity: The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. The threshold could be 20%, not the 40-70% usually cited, by via #Covid19
A low herd-immunity threshold would be great news, and would explain New York
"Essentially, at present, New York City—where I live—might be said to be at a version of herd immunity, or at least safe equilibrium. Our case counts are very low. They have been low for weeks."
For as much attention as we give to the virus, and to drugs and our immune systems, the variable in the system is us. There will only be as much chaos as we allow
The Herd Immunity Illusion - Really nice long-form piece on how herd immunity works - from in The
Some mathematicians believe that the threshold for herd immunity could be lower than it originally seemed. But that will depend on us, writes : < the challenges of interdisciplinary research ...
Sensitivity to behavioral choices, heterogeneous susceptibility, uncertainty over rates of subclinical/seronegative infection and the degrees of immunity those might provoke really blur the notion of a "herd immunity threshold". cf
#HerdImmunity - heterogeneity - local response #COVID19
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity: The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it. via
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity: The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
The lower bound here (20%) seems optimistic for herd immunity but the point (heterogeneity in susceptibility and individual transmissibility needs to be accounted for) is really important.
Fascinating read about herd immunity and modeling
If people's susceptibilities to COVID-19 infection & trans. are very heterogeneous, so that the most susceptible people (on avg) catch the virus before less susceptible people, it might be possible for us to acquire herd immunity at surprisingly low rates.