Americans have been, consistently, very wrong.
Americans have been, consistently, very wrong.
Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. They're wrong. Via
Trump has been talking a lot about crime this summer. That could tap into Americans' inaccurate belief that crime is rising - when it's actually been falling for decades. Why are Americans so wrong about crime? My story with
Americans have been, consistently, very wrong.
Misperceptions of crime — but also limits of available polling data. And consequences for politics and policy. Featuring comments from, among others,
Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. They're wrong.
Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. They're wrong.
Believing that crime is perpetually on the upswing leads to a lot of bad policies, and the people who like those policies keep that story on our front page. I kind of wish that local crime stories always mentioned, at least in passing, the rate.
Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in America. They’re wrong.
Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. They're wrong.
Many Americans are convinced crime is rising in the U.S. They're wrong.
We are *terrible* at estimating our risk of crime. (*Much worse than we are at guessing the danger of other bad things.)
Why Americans don't trust MSM: Think crime is rising? Easily solved: Dismiss soaring 2020 crime in Democrat-run cities as a "fluctuation," average in lots of data from stable low-crime areas, and imply the concern is racist. Presto! No more crime wave!
Another take is simpler--you can see public opinion tracks the crime decline neatly until 9/11. It's been all fear all the time since then, even though crime continues to decline.
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong.
I think it's good to keep remembering a lot of things are getting better. E.g. the chance to become the victim of a crime in the United States. That doesn't mean we should become complacent. It means we should feel hopeful and empowered.
Americans consistently overrate our risk of crime. We are off by a lot and far more than with other risks. For years I have consistently seen this among people who are highly educated, professional reporters, and even Congressional staffers. Why?
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong.
. cited a study by that analyzed data from three surveys of crime and safety, finding that people perceive their neighborhood as more dangerous—regardless of the actual crime rate—if more young Black men live there.
Previous installments in this series included: Crime is up this year, but the longterm trend is downwards. And most Americans don't realize that.
MOST important point from essay: "Regardless of what’s driving fear of crime, though, the fact that it is so out of whack with reality can make it really hard to change people’s minds or reform the criminal justice system." We've got work 2 do, crim peeps
. cited a study by that analyzed data from three surveys of crime and safety, finding that people perceive their neighborhood as more dangerous—regardless of the actual crime rate—if more young Black men live there.
. cited a study by that analyzed data from three surveys of crime and safety, finding that people perceive their neighborhood as more dangerous—regardless of the actual crime rate—if more young Black men live there.
"Major U.S. cities, gripped with crisis, now face spike in deadly shootings, including of children." Washington Post "The murder spike in big cities, explained" Vox "Homicide spike hits most large US cities" Wall Street Journal
Many Americans Are Convinced Crime Is Rising In The U.S. They're Wrong.