Primer on Bayesian reasoning in the . Over the last six months, as evidence has emerged and evolved, there’s been a clear divide between those who update their priors and those who do not. With
Bayes hits the New York Times! - with me on Cromwell’s Law and modelling with humility
This NYT piece on Bayesian inference in the context of epidemiology is making the rounds on Twitter, and it is indeed good. However ... 1/8
I greatly admire the researchers interviewed here, but... what the heck is this?! Yes, Bayes theorem is cool but Bayesian INFERENCE is not common in epi. Seriously, what does have against interviewing EPIDEMIOLOGISTS when they write about epi?!!
Bayesian reasoning can make the uncertainties of the coronavirus a little less daunting. “We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ and more focused on establishing a reasonable range," says biostatician Natalie Dean.
Update your priors! — This statistician’s rejoinder, sometimes offered as wry criticism, sometimes as honest advice, could hardly be a better motto for our times. 1/
Updating your priors! and confirmation bias In "How scientists can stop fooling themselves" by and "Modeling humility" section and by
This piece was months in the making, thanks for listening to all the details, quote from my book also made it in
Bayesian reasoning can make the uncertainties of the coronavirus a little less daunting. “We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ and more focused on establishing a reasonable range," says biostatician Natalie Dean.
I am happy that associates thinking like an epidemiologist with a Bayesian approach to life and science. Bayes' rule is up there with the wheel and making fire in terms of the essential inventions of humankind in my book.
I'm biased, of course, but wish we could get everyone to think like an epidemiologist
On the teachings of our Lord and Savior, Thomas Bayes.
This piece about Bayesian thinking is a great entry in the “how to think about the pandemic” genre. Update your priors!
One mathematically simple yet conceptually powerful formula can help us evaluate various Covid-19 uncertainties — and perhaps more importantly, help us adjust our understanding of the uncertainties and risks as we learn more about the virus.
Bayesian reasoning can make the uncertainties of the coronavirus a little less daunting. “We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ and more focused on establishing a reasonable range," says biostatician Natalie Dean.
Answer: “Did I forget a semicolon in my SAS code?”
Bayesian reasoning offers a way, mathematically, to incorporate uncertainty and "keep an open mind," says statistician David Spiegelhalter. "Call it ‘modeling humility.'"
While a great read, not a single epidemiologist or statistician of color is quoted in this piece! We need greater representation of epidemiologists and statisticians of color in the public facing writing about our fields. #epitwitter
Bayesian reasoning offers a way, mathematically, to incorporate uncertainty and "keep an open mind," says statistician David Spiegelhalter. "Call it ‘modeling humility.'"
What percentage of epidemiologists are Bayesian? Hey #epitwitter, am I off base here? Whenever the media covers a science topic I’m personally familiar with I often find it unrecognizable!
Bayesian reasoning can make the uncertainties of the coronavirus a little less daunting. “We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ and more focused on establishing a reasonable range," says biostatician Natalie Dean.
Bayesian reasoning offers a way, mathematically, to incorporate uncertainty and "keep an open mind," says statistician David Spiegelhalter. "Call it ‘modeling humility.'"
Bayesian reasoning offers a way, mathematically, to incorporate uncertainty and "keep an open mind," says statistician David Spiegelhalter. "Call it ‘modeling humility.'"
Even though I’m not a big fan of a Bayesian approach, this article is amazing! With comments from ⁦⁩ and ⁦⁩ among others. Highly recommend
“In other words, keep an open mind,” said Dr. Spiegelhalter. “That’s a very powerful idea. “ Great article on Bayesian inference in ⁦⁩ ⁦
Bayesian reasoning can make the uncertainties of the coronavirus a little less daunting. “We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ and more focused on establishing a reasonable range," says biostatician Natalie Dean.
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist? “Update your priors”. A primer on Bayes’ rule from
Update your priors!
Bayesian reasoning offers a way, mathematically, to incorporate uncertainty and "keep an open mind," says statistician David Spiegelhalter. "Call it ‘modeling humility.'"
Bayesian reasoning offers a way, mathematically, to incorporate uncertainty and "keep an open mind," says statistician David Spiegelhalter. "Call it ‘modeling humility.'"
"Math is the logic of certainty, and statistics is the logic of uncertainty." "As new information comes in, we update our priors all the time." "Even with evidence, revising beliefs isn’t easy."
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist. Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you, by via #Covid19 #epidemiology
Pleased to help with this excellent New York Times piece on Bayesian reasoning in the pandemic.
Bayesian reasoning can make the uncertainties of the coronavirus a little less daunting. “We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ and more focused on establishing a reasonable range," says biostatician Natalie Dean.
Keep an open mind - and update your priors all the time 🤔👩‍🔬 Amid the #COVID19 pandemic, delves into how to think like an epidemiologist 👇
Missed this awesome piece on Bayesian thinking. tl;dr: stay humble
Applies to medicine all the same Wrong: test is negative or positive Right: How does the test result change what I knew before If we taught more of the latter and less of the former, we'd have more thoughtful, effective, and high value health care
Enjoyed NYT article on the good reverend's divine formula that definitively solved epistemology and the only reason the field still exists is that as fallen creatures we see the truth but love it not. I especially liked the call for imprecise Bayesianism!
“there is little point in trying to establish fixed numbers, said Prof. ⁦⁩, We should be less focused on finding the single ‘truth’ & more focused on establishing a reasonable range, recognizing that the true value may vary“
Keep an open mind, like an epidemiologist.
“One extreme is to decide what you think and be impervious to new information. Another extreme is to over-privilege the last thing you learned...Bayesian reasoning is a principled way to integrate what you previously thought with what you have learned...”
The best gifts for giving a talk are emails from friends and colleagues about their research. A gift from Susan Holmes was this article about Bayes and covid
“Update your priors!” A good NYT piece on Bayesian methods and COVID-19
All about that Bayes, ‘bout that Bayes
"Pandemic" is now being used as an intransitive verb meaning "to ride out the pandemic," akin to "bubble." cc #coronacoinages #coronaspeak
I seem to remember talking about priors in passing with back in March. Glad to see it stuck!
Matéria legal sobre o pensamento bayesiano. No contexto da covid tem muita coisa bayesiana, os modelos do Imperial, o modelo de nowcasting q usamos no infogripe, modelos q propagam incerteza da sens e espec de testes rápidos p estimar prevalências, etc
One unexpected consequence of Covid-19 is the unprecedented rise of public interest in reasoning under uncertainty. Here is another NYT story on Bayesian stat: . Their next story is, perhaps, "Why I am only Half Bayesian"
“Math is the logic of certainty, and statistics is the logic of uncertainty."
How to think like an epidemiologist...with a little Bayesian theory. #BayesTheorem #ThomasBayes #Probability #Uncertainty #Epidemiology
Nice little mini intro to Bayesian methods in the NYT today: .
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist < at times worry about epidemiologists who are a bit abstracted away from biological basis, stating this as someone who spend almost equal amounts of time in medical school and in math departments #COVID19
“In other words, keep an open mind [...] it can just be in the back of your mind as an idea. Call it ‘#modeling #humility.’ You may be wrong.” #Think Like an #Epidemiologist
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist - The New York Times
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you.
"How to Think Like an Epidemiologist: Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you." Primer on rationality and disinformation, featuring the inimitable #phealth #covid19 #epitwitter
Enjoyable read on uncertainty in modelling from a couple of weeks back by Siobhan Roberts in
#GoodRead: How to Think Like an Epidemiologist
I find it genuinely shocking to see equations in the pages of the NYT (). But, as I argued in back in 2012, this is the way elite public intellectual discourse has been headed.
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist
“People, including very young children, can and do use Bayesian inference unconsciously” How to Think Like an Epidemiologist - The New York Times
How to Think Like an Epidemiologist: Don’t worry, a little Bayesian analysis won’t hurt you. via