Forth Coming Papers | The Econometric Society
The American Frontier shaped a culture of rugged individualism. It attracted individualistic types and made settlers more individualistic over time; its effects persist today as more exposed counties show greater opposition to government
Why is productivity greater in more competitive markets? Does competition make all firms more productive or does it make unproductive firms shut down? New tests and data from the ready-mix concrete industry support the first channel.
How do you tackle youth unemployment?
and coauthors show that on average apprenticeships and vocational training are equally effective but the effect of the former fades while the latter gets stronger over time
What does it mean to say a particular vector of descriptive statistics "drives" a structural estimate? Andrews et al. propose a formal definition and argue that it can aid interpretation when models may be misspecified
The paper quantifies dangers of factor analysis of nonstationary data. Even absent any factors, 80% of the variation is "explained" by the first 3 principal components. These relate to eigenfunctions of the covariance operator of the Brownian motion
How does firm heterogeneity shape the investment channel of monetary policy? We argue that low-default risk firms face a flatter MC curve for investment and are more responsive to monetary shocks. Thus policy may be less effective when default risk is high
Interviews help firms select the best job applicants, but the interviewer's judgment may differ from the firm's. How should firms use sources of hard information such as pre-employment tests to constrain the discretion of potentially biased evaluators?
Parallel trade affects distribution of profits. Retailer incentives lead to more parallel trade and less profits for innovating pharmaceutical companies
If centralized markets are the next best thing since sliced bread, why have some fragmented? Is it the rules, preferences or something more fundamental? This paper suggests yes, by arguing the instability of multilateral trading mechanisms.
Why is economic growth accompanied w changes in the sectoral structure of economies? Micro (~ US & India) & macro data (~ 40 countries) suggest main driver is Engel curves: systematic relations between household income and sectoral composition of demand
How can bootstrap validity be established when the bootstrap distributions are random in the limit? Giuseppe Cavaliere and Iliyan Georgiev show how by focusing on bootstrap p-values and using the theory of random measures