Once upon a time, I sat down with Mitch McConnell and reviewed these stats. I told him I believed that w/out a SCOTUS vacancy hanging in the balance in 2016, Hillary Clinton would be president. "I agree," he said. My story on why Trump might hold off:
What kind of negotiator throws away a bargaining chip? What kind of salesman gives away something that’s priceless? On leverage and the transactional president
I'm not sure about the electoral margins here - how many people who would not vote Trump will vote because of a vacancy? And how many will opt out of voting if Trump doesn't nominate?
Forget ideology (especially with ): Would holding a Supreme Court seat open help the president win the election? That's the question he's asking himself.
Waiting to Fill Ginsburg’s Seat Could Be Trump’s Key to Victory This is the only analysis you need to read. Excellent takes.