COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon?
We are very happy to share our new pre-print* () where we compare SARS-CoV-2 IgG Ab prevalence over the months of Feb to Aug in the Brazilian cities of São Paulo and Manaus. #TodosPelaSaúde * not yet peer-reviewed
New preprint by reports results of seroprevalence studies suggesting a SARS-CoV-2 attack rate of 66% in Manaus, Brazil.
Important report from Brazil of 66% estimated attack rate in Manaus Brazil. Several assumptions required but above some of the estimates of final size based on heterogeneous susceptibility models.
NEW ⁦⁩ Authors from Manaus #Brasil in Amazon region provide a glimpse of what herd immunity may actually look like at 66% or 2/3 of the population. A new aspirational goal of far right extremism in the US and lately Germany, elsewhere
I thought this new pre-print was a useful contribution to these questions - combining disease surveillance with data on serology, mobility, age-structure & control measures: 3/3
"The false promise of herd immunity for COVID-19" at w/ comments from on our recent preprint looking at SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in Manaus (). Check here answers to five questions about herd immunity:
A new study from a group monitoring and measuring antibodies in convenience blood samples from Manaus have used their data to estimate a 44-66% attack rate as of August. This would imply a high HIT and final epidemic size for the epidemic in Manaus. 1/n
COVID19 ב Manaus בברזיל. סקרים סרולוגיים: חשיפה של 52% מהאוכלוסיה. צפי ל 66% חשיפה סופית. (לא 20% כפי שמומחים בישראל טענו) הכותבים טוענים שלחסינות העדר היה תפקיד בעצירה. תמותה של 0.2-0.3% מהנדבקים. אה..אחוז בני ה-+60 שם הוא הרבה פחות ממחצית מזה שבישראל.
I'm a nutshell there was a reasonable analysis that at 40% to 50% infection rates the spread of COVID19 in Manaus had led to herd immunity. 2/
COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon
Manaus, Brazil, has had quite the COVID-19 outbreak and is close to H.I. (you know, that term that rhymes with "turd community").
If R_0 = 3 theory predicts 66%. In many places now, seroprevalence numbers in that ballpark have been observed. Manaus: "we estimate a final epidemic size of 66%" But there's overwhelming demand for cope: hence ad hoc HIT theories with zero evidence.
We haven't seen too many examples of true herd immunity for #COVID19, possibly one of the first is in Manaus, Amazonas State #Brasil where it reached 66%
And here's the real face of their "herd immunity" 66%, in the US that would represent roughly 200 million Americans, I would imagine easily 1-2 million deaths?
COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon #medRxiv
Non peer-reviewed pre-print: #COVID19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon
COVID-19 herd immunity in the Brazilian Amazon