President Trump's shrinking base: The number of non-college-educated white voters — who gave him just enough of a margin to win in 2016 — has been in a long-term decline. That decline has continued since 2016 — posing a challenge to his re-election.
"The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than 5m in the past four years, while the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13m in the same period."
Shifts in the voting-age population of the Trump coalition (white voters with no college degrees) and the Biden coalition (minority voters and white voters with college degrees) since 2016, swamp Trump’s margin of victory in 2016.
You can try to fight demographics with out of touch judges but you cannot beat the long term trends of diversity in the end via
Useful demographic context for the GOP’s continued efforts at voter suppression. Continued minority rule is only possible when the game is rigged in your favor (the EC, Senate seat allocation, and illegitimate SCOTUS certainly help).
The Relentless Shrinking of Trump’s Base