Two researchers claim that a single number they call the “political stress indicator” can warn when societies are at risk of erupting into violence. It’s spiking in the US, just like it did before the Civil War.
The US is a powder keg waiting to explode in political violence, according to two academics who measure political instability. And even a smooth transition to a Biden presidency won't change that, they say.
3/ The US has also slid on a component of the Fragile States Index that measures social cohesion, and is now the worst in the G7 on that measure.
2/ The statistic incorporates measures of wage stagnation, national debt, competition between elites, distrust in government, urbanization, and the age structure of the population. It's spiking, like it did before the civil war.
New from me: The Powder Keg Index And The Election From Hell
Compelling read on US🇺🇸 Political Violence Concern - even if Biden wins: Two US scientists (1 CIA advicer on political unrest) are convinced their "political stress indicator" is spiking in the US, just like it did before the Civil War.
"Two researchers claim that a single number they call the 'political stress indicator' can warn when societies are at risk of erupting into violence. It's spiking in the US, just like it did before the Civil War." Trouble ahead, even if Biden wins.
The Powder Keg Index And The Election From Hell via
"When Goldstone talks about America’s darkest days in the 1860s, he provocatively calls it the “First Civil War.” He fears that we may be on the way to a second one, with the 2020 election serving as a potential “fire-starter” event."
I don't know anything about this literature, but it scares me that what is surely highly speculative social science is being presented with such a high level of credibility.
This Scary Statistic Predicts Growing US Political Violence via
" said people who rule out the possibility of serious political violence in the US based on 'the strength of American institutions' are being 'unduly optimistic.'”
via "inequality....leads to political instability: Worsened by elites who monopolize economic gains, narrow the path to social mobility, and resist taxation, inequality [undermines] state institutions while fomenting distrust and resentment"
Regardless of who wins the upcoming election, an increase in political violence is likely. An interesting read...
This Scary Statistic Predicts Growing US Political Violence via