How the experts messed up on Covid - UnHerd
How did all the leading health authorities get it so wrong back in March?
Michael Story ⚓
130d ago
In UnHerd today, @StuartJRitchie and I explore the harms of expert and institutional overconfidence during the pandemic - particularly on the issue of masks unherd.com/2020/10/how-th… pic.twitter.com/VV0Gw7pZf5
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Really enjoyed writing this piece, on COVID-19 and the need to convey uncertainty, with my pal @MWStory!
This is really, really good by @StuartJRitchie and @MWStory on expert overconfidence: the early insistence that masks don’t work (rather than that there wasn’t good evidence for them) probably cost lives
Superb article on how incredibly wrong the experts were about Covid near the beginning, and how those who disagreed - and were right - were treated as idiots or active agents of misinformation.
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This from @unherd goes high up in my "pieces I wish I'd written" list, and helps explain why we're seeing a collapse in trust in government and experts over virus-handling.
Good piece on how "experts vs. misinformation" isn't the right frame. (Yes, yes, the Harvard law professor who wrote worrying about the pandemic was "excessive fear" and "probability neglect" in February now leads the WHO "Behavioral Insights" committee). unherd.com/2020/10/how-th… pic.twitter.com/kW5VZTlYgU
Experts need to stop making confident predictions — and start being upfront about their uncertainty | @StuartJRitchie and @MWStory
Justice for Caprice!
A predictably excellent piece from @MWStory and @StuartJRitchie on the flubs of medics and scientists in the early spread of Covid-19, and how some quickly rotated between totally opposing positions, holding each with equal vehemence
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How the experts messed up on Covid unherd.com/2020/10/how-th… pic.twitter.com/4sTLK7WIrd
How the experts messed up on Covid - UnHerd
It’s not surprising that advice changes in the face of emerging evidence in a novel virus. More surprising is the rigid over confidence expressed by experts and politicians early on.
I've spent a good part of my life criticizing scientists, but @MWStory & @StuartJRitchie overstate their case. Knowledge in March on many aspects of COVID19 was scanty. Communicating uncertainty is difficult. Perhaps experts should have done better. 1/
Overconfident claims by experts can come back to bite them. Especially on issues as fraught as Covid-19. | @StuartJRitchie and @MWStory
It is remarkable that experts who have u-turned on so much, & now accept their earlier aggressively-asserted claims were so wrong, are still willing to pronounce so confidently & dismissively on issues such as shielded herd immunity.
Fascinating piece on how many medical experts were sceptical about mask wearing in the early stages of the pandemic, an opinion you won't hear anywhere serious now. Why did so many think like that back then?
One of the things that’s interesting about the early March anti-mask push is it wasn’t even “wrong” it just didn’t make sense.
No public health person would say “condoms are only helpful if you’re infected.”
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“The only problem is this: mere months ago, both the WHO and the CDC both had argued — in fact, argued very confidently — against the use of masks, just as Atlas said."
“... the fundamental problem is the high degree of confidence with which the bad calls were expressed...” More on the need to acknowledge uncertainty.
"Throughout the pandemic, experts have been all too willing to make claims about the virus that bordered on the hubristic" | @StuartJRitchie and @MWStory
"How the experts messed up on Covid
Why did all the major health authorities get it so wrong back in March?"
By @MWStory and @StuartJRitchie
unherd.com/2020/10/how-th… pic.twitter.com/tmNh12m4mk
The game of expertise:
A preaching of pandemic policies.
unherd.com/2020/10/how-th… ..
‘If experts fail to reckon with the inevitable uncertainties of our current times, we risk delaying the next crucial update — or worse, overlooking it altogether.’
Fascinating to see quotes from back in the early stages of the pandemic and reflect on how much has changed in such a short time. Interesting take on how to handle uncertainty
How the experts messed up on Covid @UnHerd
This is such a rubbish article. Seeks to imply that global health people have been confused on masks, when messaging has been very clear almost since beginning of the crisis.
"Overconfidence from the experts, coupled with a willingness to denigrate and even pathologise those who publicly dissented, might have made it harder for us to change course during the pandemic, costing us precious time that we couldn’t afford"
How the experts messed up on Covid, from @MWStory and @StuartJRitchie:
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Such a brilliant piece from @MWStory and @StuartJRitchie in @unherd (which been consistently great during this crisis) unherd.com/2020/10/how-th… pic.twitter.com/XbgzRm9x0x