How Likely Is It that Courts Will Select the US President? The Probability of Narrow, Reversible Election Results in the Electoral College versus a National Popular Vote
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.
Michael Geruso
128d ago
📢 New Paper Alert
What are the chances that courts or election officials could be decisive in reversing the outcome in a presidential election? Our new paper has some insights and new facts.
@nberpubs WP released today
7
The Electoral College is a perfect machine for creating disputed elections. "The EC today is about 40x as likely as a National Popular Vote to generate scenarios in which a small number of ballots in a pivotal voting unit determines the Presidency"
"probability that the Electoral College is decided by 20,000 ballots or fewer in a single, pivotal state is greater than 1-in-10. … Electoral College today is about 40 times as likely as a National Popular Vote to generate" such a scenario
Model funds probability that the Electoral College is decided by 20,000 ballots or fewer in a single, disputable pivotal state greater than 1-in-10 & 2X as likely to affect a Democratic winner