📢 New Paper Alert What are the chances that courts or election officials could be decisive in reversing the outcome in a presidential election? Our new paper has some insights and new facts. WP released today
The Electoral College is a perfect machine for creating disputed elections. "The EC today is about 40x as likely as a National Popular Vote to generate scenarios in which a small number of ballots in a pivotal voting unit determines the Presidency"
"probability that the Electoral College is decided by 20,000 ballots or fewer in a single, pivotal state is greater than 1-in-10. … Electoral College today is about 40 times as likely as a National Popular Vote to generate" such a scenario
Model funds probability that the Electoral College is decided by 20,000 ballots or fewer in a single, disputable pivotal state greater than 1-in-10 & 2X as likely to affect a Democratic winner