New for : here's why I stand by my bet that Biden will win a higher share of the vote in Arizona than Wisconsin, and why he's likelier to break through in Texas than Ohio.
If you're wondering why I'm more bullish on AZ than WI for Biden, I've tried to explain here:
"In the Midwest and Great Lakes states, polls undershot Republicans' final margin in 28 of 33 cases...But in the Southwest, polls undershot Democrats' final margin in 17 of 19 cases, including by an average of 1.4 points in 2016 and 4.2 points in 2018."