My new column: Predicting the presidential race, state by state — and why 2020 isn’t at all like 2016
Quite reasonable Electoral College projection from
Unlike 2016... "A week before Election Day, both candidates’ actions are consistent with surveys showing the likelihood of a decisive Joe Biden victory," writes
NEW Against the Grain: “Predicting the 2020 Presidential Race, One Week Out” “Joe Biden is on track to win the election decisively, with both Rust Belt and Sun Belt battlegrounds flipping into the Democratic column.”
In the final week: Joe Biden in Georgia Kamala Harris in Texas. Donald Trump in Nebraska/Iowa. Mike Pence in South Carolina. Follow the campaigns’ actions to appreciate where the presidential race stands.
“The fact that Rs are spending lots of late money in two Republican-friendly House districts—including White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows’s former seat in rural western North Carolina—is a worrisome sign for the GOP’s overall statewide prospects.”
“A week before Election Day, both candidates’ actions are consistent with surveys showing the likelihood of a decisive Joe Biden victory.“
“Even GOP Sen. Thom Tillis hasn’t been able to benefit much from his opponent’s embarrassing sex scandal, a surefire sign that many otherwise-persuadable voters are casting straight-ticket ballots as a protest against the president.”
"My final electoral scorecard: 340 electoral votes for Biden, to 198 for Trump... a significant enough victory for Biden to claim a mandate, but not quite large enough for him to get his agenda passed without compromise."