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Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data: Using Historical Weather Patterns for Variance Estimation | Political Analysis | Cambridge Core
Randomization Inference with Rainfall Data: Using Historical Weather Patterns for Variance Estimation - Volume 25 Issue 3
Dean Eckles
@katy_milkman What's your sense of robustness of weather -> turnout?
Some studies don't account for dependence in weather across places, overestimating effective sample size. @AliciaCooperma2 uses historical "null" weather data and some of these effects go away
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Republicans Make an Unlikely Closing Pitch: Amend Section 230
Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar Pichai, and Jack Dorsey will testify Wednesday on a niche internet law less than a week before Election Day. How did we get here?
uber/orbit
Bayesian time series modeling and inference. Contribute to uber/orbit development by creating an account on GitHub.
Reverse-engineering censorship in China: Randomized experimentation and participant observation
Gary King, Jennifer Pan, and Margaret E. Roberts. 2014. “Reverse-engineering censorship in China: Randomized experimentation and participant observation.” Science, 345, 6199, Pp. 1-10.
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Dean Eckles
@alexstamos Reminds me of when @jenjpan @mollyeroberts @kinggary hired a Chinese "moderation" firm for their fake social media company so as to reverse engineer what gets censored
82d
Fake news spread on WhatsApp to Indian Americans plays stealth role in U.S. election
New Jersey tech entrepreneur Arun Bantval is U.S. presidential candidate Joe Biden's top fake-news watchdog on messaging service WhatsApp about the Democrat and his Indian American running mate Kamala Harris.
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Dean Eckles
On WhatsApp's narrow but concentrated role in (mis)information diffusion in the US election — and community-based fact checking
reuters.com/article/uk-usa… @peard33
82d
They found the first murder hornet nest, but the queen stayed hidden
It was a bitter cold morning on Saturday near the Canadian border.
Proxy Controls and Panel Data
We present a flexible approach to identification and estimation of causal
objects in nonparametric, non-separable models using `proxy controls':
covariates that do not satisfy a standard `unconfoundedness' assumption but are
informative proxies for...
How Syria's disinformation wars destroyed the co-founder of the White Helmets
The long read: In November 2019, James Le Mesurier, the British co-founder of the Syrian rescue group, fell to his death in Istanbul. What led an internationally celebrated humanitarian to take his own life?
Trump campaign ran a Facebook ad implying he won the election, which is supposed to be against Facebook’s rules
President Donald Trump's campaign appears to have a victory ad ready to go on Facebook.
Zuckerberg defends political ads that will be 0.5% of 2020 revenue – TechCrunch
As Jack Dorsey announced his company Twitter would drop all political ads, Facebook CEO Zuckerberg doubled-down on his policy of refusing to fact check politicians’ ads. “At times of social tension there has often been an urge to pull back on free...
Design-Based Inference for Spatial Experiments with Interference
We consider design-based causal inference in settings where randomized
treatments have effects that bleed out into space in complex ways that overlap
and in violation of the standard "no interference" assumption for many causal
inference methods. We...
Diffix Cedar bounty prize awarded to UPenn students | Aircloak
I would like to congratulate Matthew Joseph, Zachary Schutzman, and Travis Dick, of the University of Pennsylvania, for their brilliant de-anonymization attack on Diffix Cedar as part of the MPI-SWS Diffix bounty program. For their effort, the UPenn...
Efficient Balanced Treatment Assignments for Experimentation
In this work, we reframe the problem of balanced treatment assignment as
optimization of a two-sample test between test and control units. Using this
lens we provide an assignment algorithm that is optimal with respect to the
minimum spanning tree...
Susan Wojcicki Wants You To Think That YouTube's Algorithm is All-Powerful
Stop reifying tech's premises in seeking to critique it
Facebook election 2020: Mark Zuckerberg online registration drive signs up record 4.4 million voters
Facebook has helped register 4.4 million voters, surpassing Mark Zuckerberg's goal for the November presidential election and setting a new record.
DeclareDesign - Declare and Diagnose Research Designs to Understand and Improve Them
Dean Eckles
For small experiments, one benefit of formalizing a design is that you can easily do (Fisherian) randomization inference, something that declaredesign.org wonderfully illustrates.
83d
Postal voting could put America’s Democrats at a disadvantage
Rejection rates for absentee ballots have fallen since 2016, but are higher for non-whites than whites
Facebook explored unpicking personalities
The firm considered scoring how emotionally stable its users were to help it target ads at them.
Dean Eckles
I have some expertise in CA-style psychographics bbc.com/news/technolog…,
the quality of evidence about how well this worked pnas.org/content/115/23… nature.com/articles/d4158… wired.co.uk/article/cambri…,
and changing barriers to doing social media research
wired.com/story/fb-data-…
84d